Monday, December 27, 2010

Week 16 - Roundup of Creative Misfortune - Sunday Games

Another snow-related incident has complicated the NFL schedule and wrecked havoc with the Minnesota Vikings. With another two days off, Brett Favre may start against the Eagles, but in the meantime, let's kick back and relax with some recaps of all the Sunday games that actually took place.

Thursday Night Result:

Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (Actual ~ Pittsburgh, 27-3)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Pittsburgh, 30-10. This will only be a contest if the Steelers are already looking forward to a first-round bye in the playoffs.
     Scottie V's Pick: Pittsburgh, 24-9. The Steelers rebound after a disappointing loss to the Jets, keeping the tie-breaker over the Ravens.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh, 27-10. Pittsburgh by 14.5, Over/Under 37.
     Accuscore Pick: Pittsburgh, 31-6. Pittsburgh 85% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Pittsburgh, 21-14. Pittsburgh won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17. Pittsburgh better at 10-4.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17

     All pick systems get the Thursday Night picks correct as the Pittsburgh Steelers dominated the Carolina Panthers in all facets of the game. For their part, Pittsburgh played like solid division champions, while Carolina looked every bit like a team that would be first on the clock come April.


Christmas Day Result:

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals (Actual ~ Arizona, 27-26)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Dallas, 28-13. The game means nothing in the standings, but Jason Garrett is still out to show he deserves to be the man leading Dallas next season.
     Scottie V's Pick: Dallas, 27-13. Kudos to Jason Garrett for quite possibly the best half-season coaching job ever.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas, 28-17. Dallas by 7, Over/Under 45.
     Accuscore Pick: Dallas, 21-16. Dallas 60% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Dallas, 23-20. Dallas won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas, 20-17. Dallas better at 5-9.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Arizona, 20-17

     Dallas' forgotten season adds one more loss with a dramatic CLANG! as kicker David Buehler doinks an extra point off the upright late in the fourth quarter. The miss, coupled with two early Pick-6 touchdowns by the Cardinals' secondary, ends up being too much for the Cowboys to overcome in their trip to the desert. The loss may not help Jason Garrett in his quest to return as the head coach in Dallas next year. All systems, except the Home Team Wins system, come away with a Christmas Day loss.


Sunday Game Results:

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Actual ~ New England, 34-3)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: New England, 27-23. The Patriots won't win in a blow-out, but they will clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
     Scottie V's Pick: New England, 27-23. Much as I'd like to see the inspired Bills get a big win over the Pats, I just don't see it happening.
     Vegas Lines Pick: New England, 27-17. New England by 8, Over/Under 44.
     Accuscore Pick: New England, 28-7. New England 79% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: New England, 30-9. New England won all 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: New England, 20-17. New England better at 12-2.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Buffalo, 20-17

     Following Buffalo's opening drive, there was little drama in New England as the Patriots locked up home-field advantage throught the playoffs. Brady finished the game once again without getting picked and set the NFL record for most attempts without an interception at 319 and still counting. All systems, except the Home Team Wins system, make up for their Christmas Day pick by taking the Patriots.

New York Jets at Chicago Bears (Actual ~ Chicago, 38-34)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Chicago, 23-16. I have a hard time believing Coach Ryan and the rest of the Jets will be focused enough to beat Chicago after all the "foot" talk in New York.
     Scottie V's Pick: Chicago, 17-13. Homefield advantage gives the Bears the nod in this defensive battle.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Chicago, 20-17. Chicago by 1, Over/Under 36.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Chicago, 20-17. Chicago 55% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: New York, 20-13. New York won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago, 20-17. Both teams at 10-4, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago, 20-17

     Chicago continues to defy logic and prove that they are, in fact, a very solid team when they emerged victorious from a surprising shoot-out at Soldier Field with the New York Jets. Few systems saw the score going as high as it did as both teams nearly beat the game's Over/Under threshhold. Chicago now controls their own destiny with regards to locking up a first-round bye in the playoffs. The Jets also stumbled into the playoffs, despite losing, after Jacksonville was upset by Washington.


San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (Actual ~ St. Louis, 25-17)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: St. Louis, 24-14. The division is there for the Rams to win and with two games against weak division foes, they will only have themselves to blame if they fall short.
     Scottie V's Pick: St. Louis, 20-16. Sam Bradford takes some of the pressure off Steven Jackson to make them the best team in the uber-pathetic NFC West.
     Vegas Lines Pick: St. Louis, 23-17. St. Louis by 2, Over/Under 39.5.
     Accuscore Pick: San Francisco, 20-17. San Francisco 53% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: San Francisco, 14-10. San Francisco won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: St. Louis, 20-17. St. Louis better at 6-8.
     Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis, 20-17

     Will somebody please put the NFC West out of its misery! The 49ers finally are eliminated from post-season contention by their loss in St. Louis. The Rams now have to win next week against Seattle in order for a team from the NFC West to win the division with a .500 record. How many NFC teams with 9 wins or more will be left out just so St. Louis or Seattle can get blown out at home in a Wild Card game? Most systems get a victory by backing the Rams.


Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins (Actual ~ Detroit, 34-27)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Detroit, 24-17. Even though the Lions are anything but a great road team, I can't pick the Dolphins to win in South Florida.
     Scottie V's Pick: Detroit, 23-17. The Dolphins drop their second game in a row at home to the two most dangerous bottom-feeder teams (last week, Buffalo).
     Vegas Lines Pick: Miami, 24-20. Miami by 3.5, Over/Under 41.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Miami, 24-10. Miami 70% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Detroit, 13-9. Detroit won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Miami, 20-17. Miami better at 7-7.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Miami, 20-17

     For the longest time the Lions couldn't get a win, now they have three in a row. And, Miami, my goodness. How can they be so inept in South Florida? A mixed bag of predictions results in most systems getting a loss, while Creative Misfortune, Scottie V and What If Sports all are rewarded for their faith in Detroit winning on the road. How crazy does that last statement sound?


Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Actual ~ Tampa Bay, 38-15)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Tampa Bay, 24-21. Despite Tampa's loss to Detroit last week, they still should finish the season a solid 9-1 against teams with losing records.
     Scottie V's Pick: Tampa Bay, 24-10. The Seahawks can't win at home let alone the opposite corner of the United States.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Tampa Bay, 27-17. Tampa Bay by 6, Over/Under 44.
     Accuscore Pick: Tampa Bay, 26-10. Tampa Bay 71% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Tampa Bay, 20-17. Tampa Bay won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Tampa Bay, 20-17. Tampa Bay better at 8-6.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Tampa Bay, 20-17

     Tampa Bay dominated the Seahawks and rising star quarterback Josh Freeman tossed 5 touchdown passes to lead the rout of Seattle. Sad, sad note though. If Seattle wins next week against St. Louis, the Seahawks, at 7-9, will be in the playoffs while Tampa Bay, at 9-7 or even 10-6, will be sitting at home wishing they played in the NFC West. All systems get a victory along with the Buccaneers.


Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars (Actual ~ Washington, 20-17 (OT))
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Jacksonville, 27-20. The Jaguars lost a lot of momentum with last week's loss to the Colts, but they can still take back the division if Indy stumbles.
     Scottie V's Pick: Jacksonville, 28-14. The Jags are playing as a team and the Redskins are falling apart.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Jacksonville, 28-20. Jacksonville by 7, Over/Under 46.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Jacksonville, 28-9. Jacksonville 77% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Washington, 28-20. Washington won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Jacksonville, 20-17. Jacksonville better at 8-6.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Jacksonville, 20-17

     Without Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville fell in overtime to the Redskins and slid a full game back of the Indianapolis Colts in the standings. If the Jags win next week and Indy loses, they might be able to get into the playoffs, but Jacksonville has to win the division outright because their are no Wild Card spots available in the AFC as two teams from both the North and East divisions have already clinched a spot in the playoffs. Only What If Sports gets this game picked correctly as all other systems flounder along with the Jaguars.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (Actual ~ Baltimore, 20-10)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Baltimore, 28-21. The Ravens will continue to keep the Steelers honest and pressure them to win out in order to keep hold of the division title.
     Scottie V's Pick: Baltimore, 24-14. The Ravens take care of business on the road to stay on the Steelers' heels.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Baltimore, 23-17. Baltimore by 3.5, Over/Under 39.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Baltimore, 24-13. Baltimore 66% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Cleveland, 16-13. Cleveland won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore, 20-17. Baltimore better at 10-4.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Cleveland, 20-17

     The Ravens clinched their third consecutive playoff appearance with a solid, if not flashy, victory over their division rivals. Baltimore can still claim the division title if Pittsburgh loses the final week of the season, but it looks like Baltimore will be locked into the 5th seed in the playoffs, which could set them up for a date with the Chiefs in the first round. Most systems, except the Home Team Wins and What If Sports, picked this divisional matchup correctly.


Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (Actual ~ Kansas City, 34-14)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Kansas City, 24-17. The Chiefs can't afford to lose at home if they hope to continue their surprising run at the post-season.
     Scottie V's Pick: Kansas City, 24-13. Matt Cassell's gutsy performance last week is followed up by another solid game to stave off the Chargers in the AFC West.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Kansas City, 26-17. Kansas City by 4.5, Over/Under 42.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Kansas City, 20-17. Kansas City 54% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Tennessee, 26-17. Tennessee won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City, 20-17. Kansas City better at 9-5.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Kansas City, 20-17

     Matt Cassel may not be the MVP of the league, but he is definitely the MVP of the Chiefs. Two weeks ago Kansas City laid an egg against the Chargers while Cassel recovered from appendix surgery. Since he has been back in the lineup, the Chiefs have outscored their opponents 61-27. Cassel had 300 yards and 3 touchdowns today as the Chiefs capped another solid win with the AFC West's division crown. They now wait to host either the Ravens or the Jets during the first round of the playoffs. All systems, except What If Sports, picked up another win along with the Chiefs.


Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders (Actual ~ Indianapolis, 31-26)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Indianapolis, 27-24. The Colts have regained their momentum and won't let a trip out west slow them down.
     Scottie V's Pick: Indianapolis, 28-20. Dainty Peyton in dirty Oakland? Just doesn't seem right, but Manning gets the upper-hand in this one.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis, 26-21. Indianapolis by 3, Over/Under 47.
     Accuscore Pick: Indianapolis, 20-17. Indianapolis 54% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Oakland, 26-17. Oakland won all 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis, 20-17. Indianapolis better at 8-6.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Oakland, 20-17

     Indianapolis expanded its lead on the Jaguars with a hard-fought victory over the plucky Oakland Raiders in California. Manning and company still have work to do, so they won't be resting any starters in week 17, but it looks more and more likely they will be facing off against either the Jets or the Ravens in the first round of the playoffs as they become AFC South division champions. Once again only What If Sports and the Home Team Wins system misstepped with their pick.


Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (Actual ~ Denver, 24-23)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Houston, 34-27. The Texans finally face a defense possibly even worse than their own.
     Scottie V's Pick: Denver, 24-20. I admit, I have no idea what to expect here... The Texans seem to have thrown in the towel and Tebow gets his second start... When in doubt, Tebow!
     Vegas Lines Pick: Houston, 27-23. Houston by 3, Over/Under 48.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Houston, 21-17. Houston 56% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Houston, 24-20. Houston won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Houston, 20-17. Houston better at 5-9.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Denver, 20-17

     The Broncos, on the strength of Tim Tebow's legs and arm, scored 14 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to rally for a much needed win and stamped an exclamation point on a horrible season for Houston. Once again the Texans' defense gives up too much to the opposition. Though the game means nothing in the standings, Denver fans have to be thrilled about Tebow's success in his two starts so far. Houston fans have to be less than thrilled with their team's performance. As their playoff hopes are once again dashed, expect Coach Kubiak to be let go at the end of the season. Congrats to Scottie V who picked this game nearly perfect just because of the Tebow factor.


New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (Actual ~ Green Bay, 45-17)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Green Bay, 23-21. The Packers showed a lot of heart last week in New England... The Giants' season is one bad loss away from completely spinning out of control.
     Scottie V's Pick: New York, 27-23. A win on the frozen tundra helps the Giants to forget about the Miracle at the New Meadowlands.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay, 24-20. Green Bay by 3, Over/Under 43.
     Accuscore Pick: Green Bay, 21-16. Green Bay 58% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: New York, 28-14. New York won all 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: New York, 20-17. New York better at 9-5.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay, 20-17

     The Giants are in a flat spin and heading out to sea. As if to add further insult to their injured playoff hopes, the Giants will be stranded in Green Bay one more night as the same weather system that postponed the Eagles-Vikings game will prevent New York from returning to the East Coast. Can you imagine how much fun Coughlin will be as the Giants review their six sloppy turnovers in a must win game? For the Packers, the win is bittersweet, as they still do not control their own destiny and must defeat Chicago next week at Lambeau and get some extra help in order to have any chance at a Wild Card spot.


San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (Actual ~ Cincinnati, 34-20)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: San Diego, 35-17. The Bengals won't be able to slow the Chargers down unless Mother Nature lends a helping hand with miserable game conditions.
     Scottie V's Pick: San Diego, 23-14. The Chargers get it done in the cold and keep pressure on the Chiefs.
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Diego, 27-17. San Diego by 7.5, Over/Under 44.
     Accuscore Pick: San Diego, 28-7. San Diego 79% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: San Diego, 38-10. San Diego won all 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Diego, 20-17. San Diego better at 8-6.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati, 20-17

     The Chargers' season ends the way it began - with a lackluster performance and a crushing loss to a struggling team. All systems take a hit, except the Home Team Wins system. San Diego's loss gives the division to Kansas City and eliminated the Chargers from all playoff contention. Let's hope they fared better in Creative Misfortune's Fantasy Bowl...


Come back tomorrow for a recap of the week 16 Monday Night game and to view the results of the first ever Creative Misfortune "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." Fantasy Bowl. Both the Chargers and Giants struggled in their games. Which of these two teams will emerge as the fantasy champion?

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