Thursday, September 15, 2011

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings - Week 1 (2011)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, winning isn't the only thing, but it is the most important component of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

The Forked Few~
     Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here

     # 32 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 20)
                    The Chiefs apparently never recovered from the 30-7 loss to the Ravens in last year's playoffs, but the 41-7 drubbing the Bills put on them is ridiculous for a defending division champion. There is still plenty of time for them to get their act together, but the window will close quickly if their offense can't figure out a way to score on a consistent basis.

     # 31 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 12)
                    Without Manning, the Colts looked helpless. The team will rally around Collins in the coming weeks, but these Colts are merely Ponies without their fearless leader at the helm.

     # 30 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 24)
                    Nothing like an old college rivalry to add some spice to a boring, NFC West divisional matchup. Seattle is well on their way to becoming the first team in NFL history to make it into the playoffs two years in a row with a losing record. Now, if they could just find seven wins on their remaining schedule…

     # 29 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 13)
                    Ouch. The Eagles put the hurt on the Rams and with so many early season injuries, St. Louis could be hard-pressed to challenge for the division title.

     # 28 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 18)
                    For a team expected to be one of the surprise teams of the 2011 season, the Browns certainly laid an egg in their opening game against the Bengals.



The Creatively Challenged~
     Folly remains ever their mistress

     # 27 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 23)
                    Try as they might, the Dolphins just can’t win a shoot-out against the Brady-led Patriots.

     # 26 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 31)
                    Cam Newton for 400+ yards and three total scores. Not a bad first day of work. If he is able to lead the Panthers to a fraction of that yardage this week against the Packers then he might truly be the quarterback of the future.

     # 25 - New York Giants (previous: 10)
                    Did the Redskins surprise the Giants on Sunday? It sure seemed like New York had no idea what to expect from their revamped rivals.

     # 24 - Denver Broncos (previous: 29)
                    The Broncos weren't picked by anybody to be good this season, but the sloppiness of their game on Monday night seemed a bit much. Could the fans already be clamoring for Tebow after the Broncos so purposefully anointed Orton the guy behind center during the preseason? At this point, it certainly couldn’t hurt to see once and for all whether Tebow can play at this level or not.

     # 23 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 25)
                    There is a new kind of play now allowed in the NFL where the quarterback takes a few steps back and then throws the ball forward to what is called a receiver. The receiver then catches the ball and runs for a few more yards, if possible, thereby advancing closer to the opponent's goal line. Granted, this kind of play seems weird, since it is so much easier to just have the quarterback hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson, but trust me, this so called "passing" play works. In fact, some teams have even turned it into an art form. Maybe the Vikings should try it out and see if it makes a difference.

     # 22 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 4)
                    The Steelers should be embarrassed by their performance on Sunday. I can’t remember the last time a Pittsburgh team looked so out of sync and was so easily manhandled by an opponent.

     # 21 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 14)
                    Talk about accomplishing what has never been done before! For the first time in franchise history the Cowboys lost a game they had been leading by 14 or more points in the fourth quarter. The mistakes they made in the last few minutes - blocked punt, bone-headed interception - are the kinds of mistakes 6-10 teams make. Dallas is by no means out of it, but if they can’t stop their late-game miscues, a 1-4 start to 2011 is not out of the question.



The Remarkably Average~
     Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory

     # 20 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 5)
                    I don’t know how the Bears managed such a disparity on the scoreboard, but Atlanta better get its act together fast if they hope to be anything more than a bad preseason Super Bowl prediction in 2011.

     # 19 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 17)
                    The surprising young team of 2010 appears to have been cut down by the surprising young team of 2011. In a stacked division, Tampa Bay's only saving grace is that they are still tied for first place with New Orleans, Atlanta and Carolina in the NFC South.

     # 18 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 21)
                    Did the Titans even try against Jacksonville? Chris Johnson rushed for 24 measly yards. He better step it up if he hopes to ever live up to the new contract he just signed. Tennessee's defense did its part, but what happened to the offense?

     # 17 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 2)
                    Stopped just short of victory, the goal line stand by the Packers could very well come back to haunt the Saints when they have to board a plane in late January bound for the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field for a rematch.

     # 16 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 26)
                    The Jags won despite cutting their starting quarterback a few days before their game. Had the Titans come to town ready to play, the outcome of this game would have been far different.

     # 15 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 19)
                    Arizona showed a lot of promise… and a lot to be concerned about during their narrow victory over the Carolina Panthers. If the defense does not have an answer for a rookie quarterback in his first real game as a pro, how will they fare when an elite veteran comes to town?

     # 14 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 16)
                    The Raiders own the AFC West. They might really be on to something if they start beating teams from the other divisions.

     # 13 - Detroit Lions (previous: 22)
                    Everybody expected the Lions defense to be strong, but if the offense continues to show flashes of brilliance, Detroit's drought of terrible losing seasons may be at an end.



The Fortunate Seven~
     The best of those not yet elite

     # 12 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 32)
                    Another surprise team, the Bengals kept the Bungles at bay for at least one week. This may be the only victory of the season for them so Cincinnati fans best savor this moment.

     # 11 - New York Jets (previous: 9)
                    Super Bowl caliber teams should not need a blocked punt and a huge mental mistake by the opposing quarterback to win a game. The Jets play gritty and have proven time and time again they can win both ugly and often.

     # 10 - Washington Redskins (previous: 27)
                    Grossman put his money where his mouth is and knocked off the first NFC East rival on the schedule. If the Redskins continue to play solid defense and Grossman can avoid the mental errors that forced him out the door in Chicago, Washington might just surprise some people.

     # 9 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 28)
                    The absolute surprise of the weekend, Buffalo made everybody do a double take when their 41-7 shellacking of the Chiefs crawled across the ticker. It is doubtful in such a strong division the Bills will be able to keep this up and string together a few victories, but for one week, at least, they are not buffaloed.

     # 8 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 30)
                    Two late return touchdowns made this game look like a blow-out, but the 49ers were close to blowing a fourth quarter lead against the Seahawks. A win is a win, but until the NFC West teams start defeating powers in the other divisions, these kinds of victories will remain necessary, but hollow.

     # 7 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 1)
                    So much for addressing the Special Teams shortcomings during the offseason. 15 seconds into the game and the Chargers were already losing by a touchdown. San Diego crawled back into the game and won it in the second half, but they have to stop putting themselves into a hole every time their offense or defense comes off the field.

     # 6 - Houston Texans (previous: 11)
                    The Texans should have defeated the Manning-less Colts on Sunday. That they did so quite convincingly shows great promise for the 2011 season. Who knows? Maybe they will actually make the playoffs for a change. What a novel idea.



The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 5 - Chicago Bears (previous: 15)
                    Can you win a game by 18 points over an elite team with just smoke and mirrors? It sure seems like the Bears stole won at home against the Falcons, even though the scoreboard led you to believe they were in complete control of the game. This weekend's trip to New Orleans will tell us if the Bears are for real or not.

     # 4 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 3)
                    One yard and a 2-point conversion and everybody would have forgotten all about how great the Packers offense was and how their defense blew the opening game against the Saints. If Green Bay can only achieve victory against the upstart Panthers this weekend by a similar slim margin, Green Bay will be hard pressed to repeat as Super Bowl champions.

     # 3 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 6)
                    Not only did the Eagles soundly defeat the Rams, they physically knocked St. Louis around and dominated them throughout most of the game. Michael Vick still has some growing to do as a quarterback, but he shouldn't try to become a pure pocket passer. His mobility keeps defenses wary and with all the explosive tools at his disposal, Philadelphia will only have themselves to blame if they fall short of expectations this season.

     # 2 - New England Patriots (previous: 7)
                    Why aren't the Patriots ranked #1 after their awe-inspiring offensive performance on Monday night? The defense allowed Miami's Chad Henne to look like a poor man's copy of Tom Brady. If the Patriots hope to challenge for another Super Bowl title, they better figure out how to stop opposing offenses. Even the greatest offenses can't win every game 38-34... just ask the 2007 Patriots.

     # 1 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 8)
                    Offensive prowess, defensive grit and a huge, media-touted monkey off their backs. Not only did the Ravens defeat the AFC champions from a year ago, they humiliated the Steelers by forcing 7 turnovers and dominated all aspects of the game. The division is Baltimore's to lose.



Week 1 Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - Indianapolis Colts (-19), Pittsburgh Steelers (-18), St. Louis Rams (-16), New Orleans Saints (-15), Atlanta Falcons (-15)

The Biggest Movers - San Francisco 49ers (+22), Cincinnati Bengals (+20), Buffalo Bills (+19), Washington Redskins (+17), Chicago Bears (+10)

Maintaining The Status Quo - No teams maintained their ranking from last week.


Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVI Favorite ~ After Week 1

New England Patriots



Check back tomorrow for week 2 predictions.

No comments:

Post a Comment