Arian Foster, star running back of the Houston Texans, has recently expressed his frustration with fantasy football fans “concerned” about his injury via his Twitter account. Kurt Warner, one of the greatest comeback players in NFL history, recently admitted to Peter King a small part of the reason he decided to retire was the emphasis on his individual stats from a fantasy perspective, regardless of whether or not he led the Cardinals to victory.
As fantasy football has gained in popularity, so too has the complexity and realness of fantasy leagues. Many custom leagues now strive for an NFL feel by having keepers, salary caps, etc. Yet these rosters will always fail to have that “real” NFL feeling to them, because they are All-Pro teams.
Actual football teams, however, do not consist of All-Pro talent at every roster spot. Football is much more of a team sport. Can you name a team that ever won the Super Bowl by “buying” an NFL championship? You can’t. In fact, the opposite tends to happen. Just look at Exhibit A – the Washington Redskins. Depending on the outcome of this season, we might soon be adding Exhibit B – the Philadelphia Eagles.
Since the NFL is such a team sport, and fantasy football is anything but a team game, I wondered what would happen if real NFL games were decided by typical fantasy football scoring and rules. Will the dominate teams that challenge for the real Super Bowl by mixing and matching players to get the best possible outcome fair as well in a fantasy season where they get no points if their third string running back scores the TD or they only get points for the quarterback’s TD pass, but not for the fourth-string receiver who caught it?
Last season, The Art of Creative Misfortune ran a fantasy football season based on the NFL schedule to figure out how the season would turn out if real football used fantasy football scoring. The results were quite interesting. The Fantasy Bowl championship was not decided by the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Instead the San Diego Chargers and the New York Giants squared off for the title. Neither team made the real playoffs, despite their statistical prowess.
Will such a disconnect hold true during a second season of “If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring…”?
Come week 16, we will know for certain when Fantasy Bowl II is played. Will the New York Giants be able to duplicate their fantasy success of a year ago? Will the title game feature teams strong enough to make the NFL playoffs and the Super Bowl or will it feature the statistical juggernauts unable to win actual games consistently?
Creative Misfortune’s “If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring…” season will implement the following rules and scoring system, a variation of the one used by ESPN’s default public fantasy leagues.
Roster Details – Each team’s weekly fantasy starting players will be based on how much each player is used during a game by an NFL coach.
Team scores will be calculated based on ESPN’s scoring system (detailed below) and each starting lineup will consist of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Kicker and 1 Defense.
The lineups will be filled out based on the following criteria:
The Quarterback that starts the game will be the fantasy quarterback of record.
The two Running Backs who get the most carries (regardless of yards or TDs).
The two Wide Receivers and Tight End that catch the most passes (regardless of yards or TDs).
The Kicker that attempts the most field goals
Scoring Details – Scoring for each fantasy game will be determined by a slight variation of ESPN’s default fantasy scoring system, listed below.
Offensive Scoring
1 pt for every 25 yards passing
1 pt for every 10 yards rushing or receiving
4 pts for every passing TD
6 pts for every rushing or receiving TD
2 pts for a two-point conversion (passing, rushing or receiving)
-2 pts for an interception or lost fumble
Defensive Scoring
1 pt for every sack
2 pts for an interception, a fumble recovery or a safety
6 pts for a defensive TD (interception or fumble)
6 pts for a kickoff, punt return or block kick return touchdown
A starting offensive player who returns a kick for a TD will not be given double points
10 pts if the defense allows 0 offensive points
7 pts if the defense allows 1-6 offensive points
4 pts if the defense allows 7-13 offensive points
1 pt if the defense allows 14-17 offensive points
0 pts if the defense allows 18-21 offensive points
-1 pt if the defense allows 22-27 offensive points
-4 pt if the defense allows 28-34 offensive points
-7 pts if the defense allows 35-45 offensive points
-10 pts if the defense allows 46+ offensive points
Kicking Scoring
1 pt for each PAT
3 pts for any field goal between 0-39 yards
4 pts for any field goal between 40-49 yards
5 pts for any field goal 50+ yards
-1 pt for any missed field goal
Season Schedule – The Creative Misfortune Fantasy Football regular season will last the first 12 weeks of the 2011 NFL schedule. Standings and game results will be updated every Wednesday. The playoffs begin Week 13 and culminate in Week 16 with a championship game.
Weeks 1-12: Regular Season Games
Week 13: Wild Card Playoff Games
Week 14: Divisional Playoff Games*
Week 15: Championship Playoff Games
Week 16: Creative Misfortune Fantasy Bowl II
Teams will qualify for the fantasy playoffs exactly the same way they qualify in the NFL (the four division champions and the two teams with the best record who did not win their division will qualify in each conference).
*To reflect the benefit gained by the top 2 seeds in each conference getting a bye week before they host Divisional Playoff games, the four teams who earn these bye weeks in the fantasy standings will play Week 13 to gain bonus points that will be added to their score in the Divisional Playoff round. For every 4 points they score in their Week 13 game, they will receive 1 bonus point in their Divisional round matchup.
For example, if
Since there is no bye week between the Divisional games and the Championship Games, bonus points will only be a factor in the Divisional playoff games.
“If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring…” Season Predictions
Below are the projected Creative Misfortune Fantasy Season finishes for each team. Players listed as Key Starters for a team represent the top three players on the team, based on fantasy football scoring projections.
AFC East ~
#1
Key Starters: Tom Brady, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Stephen Gostkowski
#2
Key Starters: Mark Sanchez, Shonn Greene, Santonio Holmes
#3
Key Starters: Reggie Bush, Brandon Marshall, Chad Henne
#4
Key Starters: Fred Jackson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Steve Johnsons
AFC North ~
#1
Key Starters: Ben Roethlisberger, Rashard Mendenhall, Mike Wallace
#2
Key Starters: Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Defense
#3
Key Starters: Peyton Hillis, Colt McCoy, Defense
#4
Key Starters: Cedric Benson, Andy Dalton, AJ Green
AFC South ~
#1
Key Starters: Arian Foster, Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson,
#2
Key Starters: Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Dallas
#3
Key Starters: Maurice Jones-Drew, David Garrard, Marcedes Lewis
#4
Key Starters: Chris Johnson, Kenny Britt, Rob Bironas
AFC West ~
#1
Key Starters: Phillip Rivers, Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson
#2
Key Starters: Jamaal Charles, Matt Cassel, Dwayne Bowe
#3
Key Starters: Darren McFadden, Michael Bush, Jason Campbell
#4
Key Starters: Kyle Orton, Knowshon Moreno, Brandon Lloyd
NFC East ~
#1
Key Starters: Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson
#2
Key Starters: Tony Romo, Felix Jones, Miles Austin
#3
Key Starters: Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Ahmad Bradshaw
#4
Key Starters: Tim Hightower, Ryan Torrain, Santana Moss
NFC North ~
#1
Key Starters: Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Defense
#2
Key Starters: Adrian Peterson, Donovan Mcnabb, Percy Harvin
#3
Key Starters: Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Defense
#4
Key Starters: Mathew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Jahvid Best
NFC South ~
#1
Key Starters: Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White
#2
Key Starters: Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Mark Ingram
#3
Key Starters: Josh freeman, LaGarrette Blount, Mike Williams
#4
Key Starters: DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Steve Smith
NFC West ~
#1
Key Starters: Sam Bradford, Steven Jackson, Josh Brown
#2
Key Starters: Kevin Kolb, Larry Fitzgerald, Beanie Wells
#3
Key Starters: Marshawn Lynch, Tarvaris Jackson, Sydney Rice
#4
Key Starters: Frank Gore,
Projected AFC Playoff Teams ~
New England Patriots,
Projected NFC Playoff Teams ~
St. Louis Rams, Dallas Cowboys and the
Preseason Creative Misfortune Fantasy Bowl II favorites ~
Houston Texans vs
Tomorrow, Creative Misfortune’s predictions for the NFL standings and playoff teams...
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