Thursday, September 22, 2011

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings - Week 2 (2011)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, winning isn't the only thing, but it is the most important component of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

The Forked Few~
     Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here

     # 32 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 32)
                    If I could rank the Chiefs lower than last overall, I would. I have never seen a team so dead and buried after two games as this 2011 Kansas City squad. Injuries and poor execution on both offense and defense have devastated this division champion from one year ago. But no worries. A trip to San Diego may be the cure for what ails them, since the Chargers are infamous for playing down to their opponent's level. Still, the Chiefs are beyond forked.

     # 31 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 30)
                    The Seahawks have looked absolutely terrible with Tarvaris Jackson at the helm. Was Matt Hasselbeck really that bad? I don't think so and the Titans don’t think so. Unlike with Kansas City, there is still hope for Seattle to turn things around. They play in the NFC West afterall and in a division where the teams are a combined 2-6 after two weeks, anything can happen. Just ask the 2010 Seahawks.

     # 30 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 29)
                    The Rams are better than their 0-2 record and are probably better than their 30th ranking, but injuries and bad decisions have St. Louis trying to figure out what is going on. The game against the Giants was sloppy and not the best way to highlight your talents in primetime. Like Seattle, the Rams still have more than a good chance in the NFC West, but how truly terrible is the division if two of its four teams are considered Forked?

     # 29 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 31)
                    I really thought the Colts would rally around Collins enough to get by the Browns without incident, but Indy looks completely out of their element without Manning behind center. The Colts have been designed for a vertical passing game led by their formerly indestructible general and are now forced into a balanced attack with an emphasis on defense. That can be a formula for success in the long run, but the 2011 season is all but lost.

     # 28 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 27)
                    Before the season started, if you had to guess which AFC East team would be 0-2 after two weeks, few people would have picked the Dolphins. Further burying them deep in the division cellar is that they are the only AFC East team to lose a game yet this season. That changes this week when the Bills and Patriots square off, but that's little consolation for Miami.



The Creatively Challenged~
     Folly remains ever their mistress

     # 27 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 26)
                    400+ yards against the Cardinals is one thing, 400+ yards against the defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers, totally different. Despite Cam Newton's jaw-dropping stat lines, the bottom line remains that the Panthers are 0-2 and play in a stacked division. They will not go 1-15 this year, but they are still at least one year away from being a serious contender for the division title.

     # 26 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 23)
                    Two straight weeks, two straight fourth quarter collapses. At least the Vikings are consistent. Defensively, the Vikings have failed to stop anybody for long stretches of time and offensively, the Vikes have struggled to string together successful drives resulting in touchdowns. It will be a long, tough season in Minnesota if their only hope for victory each game is that the defense contains the opposing offense just enough so that Adrian Peterson can breakaway for the winning score. Three more weeks of ineptness and Christian Ponder should be named the starting quarterback.

     # 25 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 16)
                    Garrard, gone. McCown, benched after a terrible three quarters of play filled with four interceptions and a safety. Welcome to the party, Gabberts. Coach Del Rio needs you to take him to the playoffs if he wants to be coaching the Jaguars next season. But don’t worry. There is no pressure on you.

     # 24 - Denver Broncos (previous: 24)
                    Kyle Orton has kept the "Tebow" chants at bay for at least one more week, but a two-point victory at home over the Bengals is not going to instill a lot of confidence in any quarterback.

     # 23 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 28)
                    The Browns should be 2-0 now, but a bad loss to the Bengals still has people wondering if Cleveland can rise above the underachivement of the past few seasons and actually challenge for the playoffs. When Miami comes to town this week, the Browns better win if they hope to start building any positive momentum this season.

     # 22 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 21)
                    As impressive and gutsy as any comeback win you will ever see, Dallas should not have been behind the 49ers to begin with. Injuries have taken a toll on them and it is still yet uncertain whether Romo or Austin or Jones or Bryant will be in uniform when their Monday Night matchup against the division-leading Redskins kicks off. Are the Cowboys better than 22nd in the league? Absolutely, but only if they can weather the early season storm of injuries.

     # 21 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 15)
                    The aerial attack of Kolb to Fitzgerald seems to be coming along nicely, yet Arizona still has too many question marks on their roster for anybody to tell if they are for real or not. Being real in the NFC West is one thing, being real in the rest of the NFL is totally different.



The Remarkably Average~
     Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory

     # 20 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 19)
                    Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay saved their season with their fourth-quarter heroics against the Vikings on Sunday. The game was absolutely crucial for them to keep pace with the Saints and Falcons. Their upcoming clash with Atlanta in Florida will help determine if the Young Bucs are finally coming of age or if their still just the annoying little brothers of the NFC South.

     # 19 - New York Giants (previous: 25)
                    Sloppy wins are still wins. Manning has been careless with the football and had the Rams not gift-wrapped so many points for the Giants on Monday, the game easily could have slipped away from New York. Against Philadelphia they will have to play turnover-free football if they hope to keep pace in the hotly-contested NFC East.

     # 18 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 12)
                    For my money, the Bengals are second only to the Detroit Lions as the surprise team of the early season. Already they have one more victory than some experts predicted and they nearly had two. They are certainly no match for Baltimore or Pittsburgh, but they are a match for the 49ers and a victory in front of the home crowd could have them tied for first place after three weeks.

     # 17 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 14)
                    A heartbreaking loss on the road. Oakland has their sights set squarely on an AFC Wild Card spot, but they can’t afford to let games slip through their fingers if they hope to get there.

     # 16 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 20)
                    A big win for the Falcons over the Eagles on Sunday night. Though it merely kept them even with the Saints and Bucs in the standings, the victory could pay huge dividends at the end of the season when tiebreakers determine who gets into the playoffs and where they'll play.

     # 15 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 7)
                    The New England Patriots gave the ball to the Chargers at midfield in the fourth quarter and challenged them to score and take the lead. San Diego responded with a weak series that ended in a turnover and then the Patriots were off and runnning. San Diego will never be the championship team everyone keeps hoping they will be if they cannot move the ball 50 yards for a touchdown against a good team when their backs are against the wall.

     # 14 - Chicago Bears (previous: 5)
                    Chicago's week one victory over Atlanta looked like a fluke after their week two loss to New Orleans. Things don't get any better for the Bears when they face off against Green Bay in week three. A loss will put them all but out of the division race if Detroit stays hot.

     # 13 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 18)
                    Solid defense and a surprising passing game elevated Tennessee over the highly-rated Ravens. Still, where was Chris Johnson? In the past he's had more rushing yards in a single quarter than he had in the first two games of the 2011 season. If Tennessee can’t get their running game going, they have little hope of making it to the playoffs.



The Fortunate Seven~
     The best of those not yet elite

     # 12 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 8)
                    The 49ers. The best team in the NFC West. That isn’t saying much. A total collapse against Dallas on Sunday can't do much for their confidence, either, with the latest reports that Romo beat them with broken ribs and a punctured lung.

     # 11 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 22)
                    The Seahawks were cooked before they ever left Seattle after the embarassment Pittsburgh suffered in Baltimore during week one. Since the Ravens stumbled, the division is once again a two-team race that won't be decided until November when Baltimore comes to town for round two.

     # 10 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 17)
                    New Orleans, so close to knocking off Green Bay, left no doubt that they were better than Chicago with a solid victory before the home fans. Now they need to stay true at home and knock off the Texans this week in order to stay tied for first place with the winner of the Falcons-Buccaneers game.

     # 9 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 3)
                    Beaten, bruised and bloodied. Not quite the homecoming Vick hoped for with his return to Atlanta. Now Philadelphia may be forced to face the Giants without their superstar quarterback. As a team, the Eagles should be strong enough to defeat the Giants, whether or not Vick plays.

     # 8 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 1)
                    It's a little early in the season for the curse of the Creative Elite #1 to rear its ugly head, but, man did it ever. As good as the Ravens looked when they dominated the Steelers in week one, Baltimore looked just as bad and confused in their week two loss to Tennessee. A loss like this should wake them up and I expect them to head to St. Louis with a chip on their shoulder and a desire to show that their embarassing game last week was nothing but a momentary lapse of focus.

     # 7 - Washington Redskins (previous: 10)
                    The Redskins are 2-0 and in sole possession of first place? Their upcoming Monday Night matchup against Dallas looks scarier than ever. Washington can play defense. If the offense can continue to move the ball consistently from week to week, Rex Grossman may very well be right about their chances to win the division.

     # 6 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 9)
                    A 2-0 start means nothing if the Patriots go into Buffalo this weekend and lay 50 on the Bills. Sure, Buffalo has started out with two impressive wins, but since they are not even supposed to be here, a victory over New England will silence their critics until they finally lose a game.



The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 5 - Houston Texans (previous: 6)
                    With Foster out and gimpy, Ben Tate has filled the void nicely at running back for the hard-charging Texans. The division remains theirs to lose. If Houston can’t make the playoffs this year, rules should be put in place to keep them out indefinitely.

     # 4 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 4)
                    The Packers may still be the best team in the NFL, but two straight near-misses - an excusable one against the Saints, a surprising one against the Panthers - give me enough pause to wonder when they will stumble first. Will it be in Chicago this weekend or in their first game against Detroit down the road?

     # 3 - New York Jets (previous: 11)
                    The Jets won by 29 points while only rushing for 100 yards and passing for less than 200. If they aren't the anti-Patriots, I have no idea who is.

     # 2 - Detroit Lions (previous: 13)
                    Detroit's defense was solid last season and showed signs of greatness. The offense, too, showed flashes of inspiration last year. It looks like everything is finally coming together for the Lions in 2011. I can’t remember the last time the Lions were undefeated this late in the season. Could this mean their annual Thanksgiving Day game (against Green Bay this year) might actually be something worth watching?

     # 1 - New England Patriots (previous: 2)
                    Until they are beaten, the Patriots remain the team to beat in the NFL. Belichick's cutthroat tactics, even when they fail (see 4th and 4 from midfield against the Chargers with only a six point lead), still seem to have other coaches shaking in their boots. The Evil Empire is alive and well, though regular season success has been nothing new of late for the Patriots. It's playoff victories they need to secure before everybody should really fear that New England is back to their Super Bowl winning ways.



Week 2 Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - Chicago Bears (-9), Jacksonville Jaguars (-9), San Diego Chargers (-8), Baltimore Ravens (-7), Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

The Biggest Movers - Detroit Lions (+11), Pittsburgh Steelers (+11), New York Jets (+8), New Orleans Saints (+7), New York Giants (+6)

Maintaining The Status Quo - Green Bay Packers (4), Denver Broncos (24), Kansas City Chiefs (32)


Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVI Favorite ~ After Week 2

New England Patriots


Check back tomorrow for week 3 predictions.

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