Monday, October 27, 2014

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 8 (2014)

Best overall picks of week 8 went to Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula and the Vegas Lines formula. Both systems exceeded the 70% accuracy mark by hitting 11 out of 14 games correctly (78.6%).

Three systems - Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula, the Fantasy Projections formula, and the blind Best Record Wins formula - finshed the week tied for third place and also exceeded the 70% accuracy mark by picking 10 out of 14 games correctly for 71.4% accuracy.

The Pythagoren Theorem formula picked 9 games out of 14 correctly for a 64.3% accuracy, while blindly picking the Home Team to win netted 8 out of 14 picks correctly for the very 'home team wins' accuracy of 57.1%.

All systems favor the Dallas Cowboys to improve to the best overall record in the league tonight when they take on the Washington Redskins.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 12
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 10. Cowboys by 10, Over/Under 49.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 11. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.664 - 0.388
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 8. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a fantasy score of 86-64
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 6-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3


Week 8 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. With only four weeks remaining in the fantasy regular season, every win is crucial. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

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