With six teams on a bye this week, the NFL action is somewhat limited, but there are still some great games (and some real dogs) on this weekend's schedule.
Sunday Game Predictions:
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 13
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 14
Vegas Lines Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 11. Bengals by 11, Over/Under 44
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 12. Cincinnati Bengals projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.489 - 0.189
Fantasy Projection Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 14. Cincinnati Bengals projected to win by a fantasy score of 92-52
Best Record Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3. Bengals better at 4-2-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 14
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 10
Vegas Lines Pick: Cleveland Browns by 7. Browns by 6.5, Over/Under 43.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Cleveland Browns by 13. Cleveland Browns projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.541 - 0.227
Fantasy Projection Pick: Cleveland Browns by 14. Cleveland Browns projected to win by a fantasy score of 95-56
Best Record Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3. Browns better at 4-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 4. Cowboys by 4, Over/Under 48
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 2. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.640 - 0.597
Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 6. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a fantasy score of 81-64
Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals better at 6-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3
Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 4
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 2. Eagles by 2, Over/Under 49
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 4. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.651 - 0.564
Fantasy Projection Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 2. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a fantasy score of 86-79
Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Eagles better at 5-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Houston Texans by 3
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 18
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 13
Vegas Lines Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 10. Chiefs by 9.5, Over/Under 42
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 17. Kansas City Chiefs projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.680 - 0.252
Fantasy Projection Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 14. Kansas City Chiefs projected to win by a fantasy score of 84-43
Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3. Chiefs better at 4-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Diego Chargers by 4
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Diego Chargers by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Miami Dolphins by 2. Dolphins by 1.5, Over/Under 45
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: San Diego Chargers by 4. San Diego Chargers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.681 - 0.583
Fantasy Projection Pick: San Diego Chargers by 2. San Diego Chargers projected to win by a fantasy score of 75-70
Best Record Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3. Chargers better at 5-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3
Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 1
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 1. Vikings by 1, Over/Under 44.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Washington Redskins by 1. Washington Redskins projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.408 - 0.380
Fantasy Projection Pick: Washington Redskins by 5. Washington Redskins projected to win by a fantasy score of 75-60
Best Record Wins Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 3. Both teams at 3-5, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 3
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 9
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 5
Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 10. 49ers by 10, Over/Under 43.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 9. San Francisco 49ers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.474 - 0.263
Fantasy Projection Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 11. San Francisco 49ers projected to win by a fantasy score of 89-59
Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. 49ers better at 4-3
Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 4
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 6
Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos by 3, Over/Under 54.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Denver Broncos projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.747 - 0.669
Fantasy Projection Pick: Denver Broncos by 2. Denver Broncos projected to win by a fantasy score of 87-81
Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 6-1
Home Team Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3
Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 14
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 7
Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 15. Seahawks by 15, Over/Under 43
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 15. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.580 - 0.216
Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 14. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a fantasy score of 84-43
Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks better at 4-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 10
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 1. Pick 'em! Over/Under 48, home team wins
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 10. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.768 - 0.527
Fantasy Projection Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 1. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a fantasy score of 80-79
Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Both teams at 5-3, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3
Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.
Friday, October 31, 2014
Thursday, October 30, 2014
Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 9 (2014)
First place in the NFC South is up for grabs tonight as the Saints travel to Carolina to take on the Panthers.
The pick systems are divided on who will win tonight's game, with four systems (Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY, Vegas Lines, Pythagorean Theorem, and Fantasy Projections) favoring the Saints and three systems (Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY, Best Record Wins, Home Team Wins) favoring the Panthers.
Thursday Night Game Prediction:
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints by 3, Over/Under 49
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New Orleans Saints by 6. New Orleans Saints projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.534 - 0.373
Fantasy Projection Pick: New Orleans Saints by 6. New Orleans Saints projected to win by a fantasy score of 92-76
Best Record Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3. Panthers better at 3-4-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3
Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 9 slate...
The pick systems are divided on who will win tonight's game, with four systems (Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY, Vegas Lines, Pythagorean Theorem, and Fantasy Projections) favoring the Saints and three systems (Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY, Best Record Wins, Home Team Wins) favoring the Panthers.
Thursday Night Game Prediction:
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints by 3, Over/Under 49
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New Orleans Saints by 6. New Orleans Saints projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.534 - 0.373
Fantasy Projection Pick: New Orleans Saints by 6. New Orleans Saints projected to win by a fantasy score of 92-76
Best Record Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3. Panthers better at 3-4-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3
Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 9 slate...
Creative Misfortune Power Rankings ~ Week 8 (2014)
Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.
When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.
The Forked Few~
Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here
# 32 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 32)
The Raiders won't be breaking their winless streak when they travel to Seattle this weekend. Their best chance for a win may not materialize until week 16 when they host the Buffalo Bills - and even that is anything but a sure win for them.
# 31 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 31)
The Jaguars go right back to their losing ways.
# 30 - New York Jets (previous: 29)
I'm surprised the Jets waited as long as they did to bench Geno Smith. The kid may become a capable starter in the future, but right now he just doesn't have it.
# 29 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 30)
Tampa Bay hardly looked competitive against the Vikings.
# 28 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 28)
After knocking off the defending champions, the Rams fall to Kansas City in a game that isn't even close.
The Creatively Challenged~
Folly remains ever their mistress
# 27 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 27)
The Titans seem like they should be better than they are, but they just can't put everything together.
# 26 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 25)
The biggest collapse in team history will not do anything to help Atlanta feel better about this season.
# 25 - Chicago Bears (previous: 22)
A Bears team without a defense just doesn't feel like the Chicago Bears.
# 24 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 23)
The Panthers continue to be inconsistent. At least they still control their own destiny in their division.
# 23 - Washington Redskins (previous: 26)
Colt McCoy played a brilliant game and the defensive game plan gave the Redskins a huge win over Dallas Monday Night. They still remain on the outside looking in, but they have given their fans some much needed hope that the season will not be a complete loss.
# 22 - New York Giants (previous: 19)
Fresh off their bye week, the Giants have a Monday Night date with an angry Colts team. It will be interesting to see how New York weathers that storm.
# 21 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 24)
The defense has been playing well the last few weeks. The offense needs to figure out a way to score more than 20 points a game, something they have not done since they defeated the Falcons back in week 4.
The Remarkably Average~
Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory
# 20 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 18)
Whether the play was called back or not, giving up an 80-yard touchdown pass in the final seconds of the game is completely inexcusable.
# 19 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 20)
The Bills beat the teams they should and lose to the teams they should.
# 18 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 16)
Fresh off their bye week, San Francisco has a lot of work to do to try and catch the Cardinals.
# 17 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 15)
The Dolphins are back above .500 and have to win almost every game left on their schedule if they hope to keep pace with the Patriots in the division.
# 16 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 13)
Nothing like winning a field goal fest against the only winless team in the league.
# 15 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 21)
In a must-win game, the Saints won. Despite having a losing record, they are the team to beat in the weak NFC South.
# 14 - Houston Texans (previous: 14)
The Texans are far better than their .500 record would indicate.
# 13 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 12)
The Seahawks continue to struggle, but leaving Carolina with an ugly win should help them in their quest to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
The Fortunate Seven~
The best of those not yet elite
# 12 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 17)
Record day for Big Ben. Now if the Steelers could just play consistently, they could become a solid playoff contender.
# 11 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 6)
The Saints simply had to win the game on Sunday and Green Bay did not play at a level capable of handling that kind of desperation.
# 10 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 8)
The Chargers have followed up five straight wins with two straight losses. They'll have to play well on the road against a strong Miami team if they hope to get back to their winning ways.
# 9 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 11)
The Chiefs are quietly becoming a very strong playoff contender.
# 8 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 5)
Pass interference aside, Steve Smith continues to energize the Baltimore Ravens.
# 7 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 2)
Can the Eagles win without scoring special teams or defensive touchdowns?
# 6 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 3)
Tough loss at home. DeMarco Murray continues his record-pace, but injury concerns about Romo's back could slow the passing game down.
The Creative Elite~
Wielding misfortune at its finest
# 5 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 4)
The Steelers completely demolished the Colts, but Indianapolis still lit up the scoreboard. Hard to look at this game as anything more than a fluke.
# 4 - Detroit Lions (previous: 7)
The Lions found magic overseas. Will that success propel them on to great things or did the Falcons highlight Detroit's weaknesses for the rest of the league to take advantage of?
# 3 - New England Patriots (previous: 10)
These are the Patriots we have come to know and love (or hate!) over the years.
# 2 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 9)
Despite the lingering doubts, the Cardinals continue to win week in and week out.
# 1 - Denver Broncos (previous: 1)
The dominating win over the Chargers last Thursday night swept away any doubts about the Broncos maintaining control of their division.
Week 8 Power Ranking Awards:
The Free Fallers - Philadelphia Eagles (-5), Green Bay Packers (-5), Dallas Cowboys (-3), Baltimore Ravens (-3), Cleveland Browns (-3)
The Biggest Movers - Arizona Cardinals (+7), New England Patriots (+7), New Orleans Saints (+6), Pittsburgh Steelers (+5), Detroit Lions (+3)
Maintaining The Status Quo - Denver Broncos (1), Houston Texans (14), Tennessee Titans (27), St. Louis Rams (28), Jacksonville Jaguars (31), Oakland Raiders (32)
Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLIX Favorites ~ After Week 8
AFC Favorite:
Denver Broncos
NFC Favorite:
Philadelphia Eagles
Check back tomorrow for week 9 predictions.
When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.
The Forked Few~
Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here
# 32 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 32)
The Raiders won't be breaking their winless streak when they travel to Seattle this weekend. Their best chance for a win may not materialize until week 16 when they host the Buffalo Bills - and even that is anything but a sure win for them.
# 31 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 31)
The Jaguars go right back to their losing ways.
# 30 - New York Jets (previous: 29)
I'm surprised the Jets waited as long as they did to bench Geno Smith. The kid may become a capable starter in the future, but right now he just doesn't have it.
# 29 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 30)
Tampa Bay hardly looked competitive against the Vikings.
# 28 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 28)
After knocking off the defending champions, the Rams fall to Kansas City in a game that isn't even close.
The Creatively Challenged~
Folly remains ever their mistress
# 27 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 27)
The Titans seem like they should be better than they are, but they just can't put everything together.
# 26 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 25)
The biggest collapse in team history will not do anything to help Atlanta feel better about this season.
# 25 - Chicago Bears (previous: 22)
A Bears team without a defense just doesn't feel like the Chicago Bears.
# 24 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 23)
The Panthers continue to be inconsistent. At least they still control their own destiny in their division.
# 23 - Washington Redskins (previous: 26)
Colt McCoy played a brilliant game and the defensive game plan gave the Redskins a huge win over Dallas Monday Night. They still remain on the outside looking in, but they have given their fans some much needed hope that the season will not be a complete loss.
# 22 - New York Giants (previous: 19)
Fresh off their bye week, the Giants have a Monday Night date with an angry Colts team. It will be interesting to see how New York weathers that storm.
# 21 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 24)
The defense has been playing well the last few weeks. The offense needs to figure out a way to score more than 20 points a game, something they have not done since they defeated the Falcons back in week 4.
The Remarkably Average~
Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory
# 20 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 18)
Whether the play was called back or not, giving up an 80-yard touchdown pass in the final seconds of the game is completely inexcusable.
# 19 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 20)
The Bills beat the teams they should and lose to the teams they should.
# 18 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 16)
Fresh off their bye week, San Francisco has a lot of work to do to try and catch the Cardinals.
# 17 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 15)
The Dolphins are back above .500 and have to win almost every game left on their schedule if they hope to keep pace with the Patriots in the division.
# 16 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 13)
Nothing like winning a field goal fest against the only winless team in the league.
# 15 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 21)
In a must-win game, the Saints won. Despite having a losing record, they are the team to beat in the weak NFC South.
# 14 - Houston Texans (previous: 14)
The Texans are far better than their .500 record would indicate.
# 13 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 12)
The Seahawks continue to struggle, but leaving Carolina with an ugly win should help them in their quest to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
The Fortunate Seven~
The best of those not yet elite
# 12 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 17)
Record day for Big Ben. Now if the Steelers could just play consistently, they could become a solid playoff contender.
# 11 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 6)
The Saints simply had to win the game on Sunday and Green Bay did not play at a level capable of handling that kind of desperation.
# 10 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 8)
The Chargers have followed up five straight wins with two straight losses. They'll have to play well on the road against a strong Miami team if they hope to get back to their winning ways.
# 9 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 11)
The Chiefs are quietly becoming a very strong playoff contender.
# 8 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 5)
Pass interference aside, Steve Smith continues to energize the Baltimore Ravens.
# 7 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 2)
Can the Eagles win without scoring special teams or defensive touchdowns?
# 6 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 3)
Tough loss at home. DeMarco Murray continues his record-pace, but injury concerns about Romo's back could slow the passing game down.
The Creative Elite~
Wielding misfortune at its finest
# 5 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 4)
The Steelers completely demolished the Colts, but Indianapolis still lit up the scoreboard. Hard to look at this game as anything more than a fluke.
# 4 - Detroit Lions (previous: 7)
The Lions found magic overseas. Will that success propel them on to great things or did the Falcons highlight Detroit's weaknesses for the rest of the league to take advantage of?
# 3 - New England Patriots (previous: 10)
These are the Patriots we have come to know and love (or hate!) over the years.
# 2 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 9)
Despite the lingering doubts, the Cardinals continue to win week in and week out.
# 1 - Denver Broncos (previous: 1)
The dominating win over the Chargers last Thursday night swept away any doubts about the Broncos maintaining control of their division.
Week 8 Power Ranking Awards:
The Free Fallers - Philadelphia Eagles (-5), Green Bay Packers (-5), Dallas Cowboys (-3), Baltimore Ravens (-3), Cleveland Browns (-3)
The Biggest Movers - Arizona Cardinals (+7), New England Patriots (+7), New Orleans Saints (+6), Pittsburgh Steelers (+5), Detroit Lions (+3)
Maintaining The Status Quo - Denver Broncos (1), Houston Texans (14), Tennessee Titans (27), St. Louis Rams (28), Jacksonville Jaguars (31), Oakland Raiders (32)
Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLIX Favorites ~ After Week 8
AFC Favorite:
Denver Broncos
NFC Favorite:
Philadelphia Eagles
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
Week 8 Results (2014) ~ "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..."
A wild weekend of games and high scoring produced some interesting and unexpected results this week.
In week 8, the Philadelphia Eagles were the only team who managed to win a fantasy game they lost in real life.
High score of the week goes to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who scored a season-high 150 fantasy points against the Indianapolis Colts, who nearly broke the century mark themselves by scoring 94 points. Other teams of note this week that scored 100 points or more: New England Patriots (124), New Orleans Saints (115), Buffalo Bills (105), and the Denver Broncos (101).
Low score falls to the St. Louis Rams at 29 points, who were unable to score enough fantasy points to beat the real 34 points the Kansas City Chiefs scored against them. The New York Jets also failed to score more fantasy points (37) than the real number of points scored against them (43) by the Buffalo Bills.
Closest Game of the Week: Philadelphia Eagles 88, Arizona Cardinals 86. The Eagles may have lost by a few points in real life, but they managed to steal a win on the fantasy scoreboard. It will be interesting to see what impact this stolen victory will have on the Eagle's fantasy playoff hopes, especially since the Dallas Cowboys stumbled on Monday night.
Fantasy Star of the Week: Ben Roethlisberger, 44 points. After struggling to generate fantasy points more often than not this season, Big Ben exploded on Sunday against the Colts to the tune of 522 yards and six touchdowns. I'd say those are Peyton Manning-like numbers, but Peyton hasn't scored that many points in a single game since last season.
The following teams have been eliminated from post-season play (weeks 13-16):
New York Jets
Week 8 Game Results:
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
Fantasy Score: Denver Broncos 101, San Diego Chargers 57
San Diego's Key Performers: Philip Rivers (19), Antonio Gates (17), Keenan Allen (13)
Denver's Key Performers: Emmanuel Sanders (30), Peyton Manning (23), Juwan Thompson (14)
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Fantasy Score: Seattle Seahawks 60, Carolina Panthers 44
Seattle's Key Performers: Russell Wilson (12), Defense (11), Steven Hauschka (9)
Carolina's Key Performers: Graham Gano (10), Kelvin Benjamin (9), Defense (9)
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Fantasy Score: Cincinnati Bengals 70, Baltimore Ravens 61
Baltimore's Key Performers: Lorenzo Taliaferro (18), Jason Tucker (15), Justin Forsett (9)
Cincinnati's Key Performers: Andy Dalton (19), Mohamed Sanu (14), Giovani Bernard (10)
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars
Fantasy Score: Miami Dolphins 80, Jacksonville Jaguars 57
Miami's Key Performers: Defense (28), Ryan Tannehill (13), Caleb Sturgis (10)
Jacksonville's Key Performers: Allen Robinson (14), Denard Robinson (11), Blake Bortles (10)
St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs
Fantasy Score: Kansas City Chiefs 89, St. Louis Rams 29
St. Louis' Key Performers: Austin Davis (8), Lance Kendricks (6), Kenny Britt (5)
Kansas City's Key Performers: Jamaal Charles (23), Defense (19), Knile Davis (16)
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots
Fantasy Score: New England Patriots 124, Chicago Bears 69
Chicago's Key Performers: Matt Forte (24), Jay Cutler (21), Martellus Bennett (15)
New England's Key Performers: Tom Brady (34), Rob Gronkowski (32), Brandon LaFell (18)
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Fantasy Score: Buffalo Bills 105, New York Jets 37
Buffalo's Key Performers: Kyle Orton (25), Sammie Watkins (21), Defense (15)
New York's Key Performers: Cvhris Ivory (16), Bilal Powell (8), Nick Folk (7)
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Fantasy Score: Houston Texans 92, Tennessee Titans 58
Houston's Key Performers: Arian Foster (35), Ryan Fitzpatrick (14), Randy Bullock (13)
Tennessee's Key Performers: Zach Mettenberger (15), Delanie Walker (9), Justin Hunter (9)
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fantasy Score: Minnesota Vikings 74, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43
Minnesota's Key Performers: Defense (19), Teddy Bridgewater (13), Greg Jennings (9)
Tampa Bay's Key Performers: Patrick Murray (10), Mike Glennon (9), Mike Evans (7)
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
Fantasy Score: Philadelphia Eagles 88, Arizona Cardinals 86
Philadelphia's Key Performers: Jeremy Maclin (30), Nick Foles (21), Cody Parkey (10)
Arizona's Key Performers: Larry Fitzgerald (22), Carson Palmer (21), John Brown (17)
Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns
Fantasy Score: Cleveland Browns 78, Oakland Raiders 65
Oakland's Key Performers: Derek Carr (15), Andre Holmes (12), Sebastian Janikowski (8)
Cleveland's Key Performers: Brian Hoyer (15), Andrew Hawkins (14), Defense (13)
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 150, Indianapolis Colts 94
Indianapolis' Key Performers: Andre Luck (26), T.Y. Hilton (21), Donte Moncrief (17)
Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Ben Roethlisberger (44), Antonio Brown (25), Martavis Bryant (20)
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints
Fantasy Score: New Orleans Saints 115, Green Bay Packers 82
Green Bay's Key Performers: Aaron Rodgers (24), Randall Cobb (18), Eddie Lacy (17)
New Orleans' Key Performers: Drew Brees (24), Mark Ingram (23), Brandin Cooks (21)
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy Score: Detroit Lions 80, Atlanta Falcons 58
Detroit's Key Performers: Golden Tate (21), Matthew Stafford (19), Theo Riddick (13)
Atlanta's Key Performers: Matt Ryan (15), Steven Jackson (12), Roddy White (6)
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Fantasy Score: Washington Redskins 75, Dallas Cowboys 72
Washington's Key Performers: Colt McCoy (16), Alfred Morris (14), DeSean Jackson (13)
Dallas' Key Performers: DeMarco Murray (20), Jason Witten (13), Tony Romo (12)
Tomorrow, The Art of Creative Misfortune Power Rankings
In week 8, the Philadelphia Eagles were the only team who managed to win a fantasy game they lost in real life.
High score of the week goes to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who scored a season-high 150 fantasy points against the Indianapolis Colts, who nearly broke the century mark themselves by scoring 94 points. Other teams of note this week that scored 100 points or more: New England Patriots (124), New Orleans Saints (115), Buffalo Bills (105), and the Denver Broncos (101).
Low score falls to the St. Louis Rams at 29 points, who were unable to score enough fantasy points to beat the real 34 points the Kansas City Chiefs scored against them. The New York Jets also failed to score more fantasy points (37) than the real number of points scored against them (43) by the Buffalo Bills.
Closest Game of the Week: Philadelphia Eagles 88, Arizona Cardinals 86. The Eagles may have lost by a few points in real life, but they managed to steal a win on the fantasy scoreboard. It will be interesting to see what impact this stolen victory will have on the Eagle's fantasy playoff hopes, especially since the Dallas Cowboys stumbled on Monday night.
Fantasy Star of the Week: Ben Roethlisberger, 44 points. After struggling to generate fantasy points more often than not this season, Big Ben exploded on Sunday against the Colts to the tune of 522 yards and six touchdowns. I'd say those are Peyton Manning-like numbers, but Peyton hasn't scored that many points in a single game since last season.
The following teams have been eliminated from post-season play (weeks 13-16):
New York Jets
Week 8 Game Results:
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
Fantasy Score: Denver Broncos 101, San Diego Chargers 57
San Diego's Key Performers: Philip Rivers (19), Antonio Gates (17), Keenan Allen (13)
Denver's Key Performers: Emmanuel Sanders (30), Peyton Manning (23), Juwan Thompson (14)
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Fantasy Score: Seattle Seahawks 60, Carolina Panthers 44
Seattle's Key Performers: Russell Wilson (12), Defense (11), Steven Hauschka (9)
Carolina's Key Performers: Graham Gano (10), Kelvin Benjamin (9), Defense (9)
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Fantasy Score: Cincinnati Bengals 70, Baltimore Ravens 61
Baltimore's Key Performers: Lorenzo Taliaferro (18), Jason Tucker (15), Justin Forsett (9)
Cincinnati's Key Performers: Andy Dalton (19), Mohamed Sanu (14), Giovani Bernard (10)
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars
Fantasy Score: Miami Dolphins 80, Jacksonville Jaguars 57
Miami's Key Performers: Defense (28), Ryan Tannehill (13), Caleb Sturgis (10)
Jacksonville's Key Performers: Allen Robinson (14), Denard Robinson (11), Blake Bortles (10)
St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs
Fantasy Score: Kansas City Chiefs 89, St. Louis Rams 29
St. Louis' Key Performers: Austin Davis (8), Lance Kendricks (6), Kenny Britt (5)
Kansas City's Key Performers: Jamaal Charles (23), Defense (19), Knile Davis (16)
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots
Fantasy Score: New England Patriots 124, Chicago Bears 69
Chicago's Key Performers: Matt Forte (24), Jay Cutler (21), Martellus Bennett (15)
New England's Key Performers: Tom Brady (34), Rob Gronkowski (32), Brandon LaFell (18)
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Fantasy Score: Buffalo Bills 105, New York Jets 37
Buffalo's Key Performers: Kyle Orton (25), Sammie Watkins (21), Defense (15)
New York's Key Performers: Cvhris Ivory (16), Bilal Powell (8), Nick Folk (7)
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Fantasy Score: Houston Texans 92, Tennessee Titans 58
Houston's Key Performers: Arian Foster (35), Ryan Fitzpatrick (14), Randy Bullock (13)
Tennessee's Key Performers: Zach Mettenberger (15), Delanie Walker (9), Justin Hunter (9)
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fantasy Score: Minnesota Vikings 74, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43
Minnesota's Key Performers: Defense (19), Teddy Bridgewater (13), Greg Jennings (9)
Tampa Bay's Key Performers: Patrick Murray (10), Mike Glennon (9), Mike Evans (7)
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
Fantasy Score: Philadelphia Eagles 88, Arizona Cardinals 86
Philadelphia's Key Performers: Jeremy Maclin (30), Nick Foles (21), Cody Parkey (10)
Arizona's Key Performers: Larry Fitzgerald (22), Carson Palmer (21), John Brown (17)
Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns
Fantasy Score: Cleveland Browns 78, Oakland Raiders 65
Oakland's Key Performers: Derek Carr (15), Andre Holmes (12), Sebastian Janikowski (8)
Cleveland's Key Performers: Brian Hoyer (15), Andrew Hawkins (14), Defense (13)
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 150, Indianapolis Colts 94
Indianapolis' Key Performers: Andre Luck (26), T.Y. Hilton (21), Donte Moncrief (17)
Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Ben Roethlisberger (44), Antonio Brown (25), Martavis Bryant (20)
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints
Fantasy Score: New Orleans Saints 115, Green Bay Packers 82
Green Bay's Key Performers: Aaron Rodgers (24), Randall Cobb (18), Eddie Lacy (17)
New Orleans' Key Performers: Drew Brees (24), Mark Ingram (23), Brandin Cooks (21)
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy Score: Detroit Lions 80, Atlanta Falcons 58
Detroit's Key Performers: Golden Tate (21), Matthew Stafford (19), Theo Riddick (13)
Atlanta's Key Performers: Matt Ryan (15), Steven Jackson (12), Roddy White (6)
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Fantasy Score: Washington Redskins 75, Dallas Cowboys 72
Washington's Key Performers: Colt McCoy (16), Alfred Morris (14), DeSean Jackson (13)
Dallas' Key Performers: DeMarco Murray (20), Jason Witten (13), Tony Romo (12)
Tomorrow, The Art of Creative Misfortune Power Rankings
Monday, October 27, 2014
Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 8 (2014)
Best overall picks of week 8 went to Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula and the Vegas Lines formula. Both systems exceeded the 70% accuracy mark by hitting 11 out of 14 games correctly (78.6%).
Three systems - Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula, the Fantasy Projections formula, and the blind Best Record Wins formula - finshed the week tied for third place and also exceeded the 70% accuracy mark by picking 10 out of 14 games correctly for 71.4% accuracy.
The Pythagoren Theorem formula picked 9 games out of 14 correctly for a 64.3% accuracy, while blindly picking the Home Team to win netted 8 out of 14 picks correctly for the very 'home team wins' accuracy of 57.1%.
All systems favor the Dallas Cowboys to improve to the best overall record in the league tonight when they take on the Washington Redskins.
Monday Night Game Prediction:
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 12
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7
Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 10. Cowboys by 10, Over/Under 49.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 11. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.664 - 0.388
Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 8. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a fantasy score of 86-64
Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 6-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3
Week 8 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. With only four weeks remaining in the fantasy regular season, every win is crucial. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?
Three systems - Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula, the Fantasy Projections formula, and the blind Best Record Wins formula - finshed the week tied for third place and also exceeded the 70% accuracy mark by picking 10 out of 14 games correctly for 71.4% accuracy.
The Pythagoren Theorem formula picked 9 games out of 14 correctly for a 64.3% accuracy, while blindly picking the Home Team to win netted 8 out of 14 picks correctly for the very 'home team wins' accuracy of 57.1%.
All systems favor the Dallas Cowboys to improve to the best overall record in the league tonight when they take on the Washington Redskins.
Monday Night Game Prediction:
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 12
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7
Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 10. Cowboys by 10, Over/Under 49.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 11. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.664 - 0.388
Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 8. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a fantasy score of 86-64
Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 6-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3
Week 8 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. With only four weeks remaining in the fantasy regular season, every win is crucial. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?
Friday, October 24, 2014
Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Week 8 (2014)
Week 8 gets underway with another International Series game across the pond in London!
Sunday Game Predictions:
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 9
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 4
Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 4. Lions by 3.5, Over/Under 47
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Detroit Lions by 10. Detroit Lions projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.664 - 0.411
Fantasy Projection Pick: Detroit Lions by 6. Detroit Lions projected to win by a fantasy score of 77-61
Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 5-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 3
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 5. Seahawks 4.5, Over/Under 45
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 8. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.571 - 0.378
Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 4. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a fantasy score of 81-70
Best Record Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3. Both teams at .500 (3-3 and 3-3-1), home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 14
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 1. Bengals by 1, Over/Under 45.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 14. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.812 - 0.474
Fantasy Projection Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 8. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a fantasy score of 85-61
Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Ravens better at 5-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 14
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 6
Vegas Lines Pick: Miami Dolphins by 6. Dolphins by 5.5, Over/Under 43
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Miami Dolphins by 14. Miami Dolphins projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.537 - 0.195
Fantasy Projection Pick: Miami Dolphins by 12. Miami Dolphins projected to win by a fantasy score of 83-48
Best Record Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3. Dolphins better at 3-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars by 3
St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 11
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 4
Vegas Lines Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 7. Chiefs by 7, Over/Under 44
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 11. Kansas City Chiefs projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.594 - 0.324
Fantasy Projection Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 7. Kansas City Chiefs projected to win by a fantasy score of 83-62
Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3. Chiefs better at 3-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 6. Patriots by 5.5, Over/Under 50.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New England Patriots by 7. New England Patriots projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.613 - 0.450
Fantasy Projection Pick: New England Patriots by 8. New England Patriots projected to win by a fantasy score of 86-64
Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better at 5-2
Home Team Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: New York Jets by 3. Jets by 3, Over/Under 41
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Buffalo Bills by 8. Buffalo Bills projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.462 - 0.268
Fantasy Projection Pick: Buffalo Bills by 7. Buffalo Bills projected to win by a fantasy score of 73-52
Best Record Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3. Bills better at 4-3
Home Team Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: Houston Texans by 2. Texans by 2, Over/Under 42.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Houston Texans by 9. Houston Texans projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.519 - 0.303
Fantasy Projection Pick: Houston Texans by 3. Houston Texans projected to win by a fantasy score of 72-63
Best Record Wins Pick: Houston Texans by 3. Texans better at 3-4
Home Team Wins Pick: Tennessee Titans by 3
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 5
Vegas Lines Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3. Buccaneers by 2.5, Over/Under 41.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 5. Minnesota Vikings projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.344 - 0.221
Fantasy Projection Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 5. Minnesota Vikings projected to win by a fantasy score of 76-63
Best Record Wins Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 3. Vikings better at 2-5
Home Team Wins Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 4
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 4
Vegas Lines Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals by 2.5, Over/Under 48
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 4. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.684 - 0.595
Fantasy Projection Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 1. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a fantasy score of 78-76
Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Both teams at 5-1, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3
Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 11
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 6
Vegas Lines Pick: Cleveland Browns by 7. Browns by 7, Over/Under 43
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Cleveland Browns by 12. Cleveland Browns projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.504 - 0.217
Fantasy Projection Pick: Cleveland Browns by 12. Cleveland Browns projected to win by a fantasy score of 82-47
Best Record Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3. Browns better at 3-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 12
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts by 3, Over/Under 49
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 11. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.750 - 0.470
Fantasy Projection Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 10. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a fantasy score of 92-63
Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts better at 5-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 9
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 5
Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 1. Saints by 1, Over/Under 55.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Green Bay Packers by 8. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.672 - 0.463
Fantasy Projection Pick: Green Bay Packers by 5. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a fantasy score of 89-76
Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Packers better at 5-2
Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3
Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.
Sunday Game Predictions:
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 9
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 4
Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 4. Lions by 3.5, Over/Under 47
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Detroit Lions by 10. Detroit Lions projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.664 - 0.411
Fantasy Projection Pick: Detroit Lions by 6. Detroit Lions projected to win by a fantasy score of 77-61
Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 5-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 3
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 5. Seahawks 4.5, Over/Under 45
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 8. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.571 - 0.378
Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 4. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a fantasy score of 81-70
Best Record Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3. Both teams at .500 (3-3 and 3-3-1), home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 14
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 1. Bengals by 1, Over/Under 45.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 14. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.812 - 0.474
Fantasy Projection Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 8. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a fantasy score of 85-61
Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Ravens better at 5-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 14
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 6
Vegas Lines Pick: Miami Dolphins by 6. Dolphins by 5.5, Over/Under 43
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Miami Dolphins by 14. Miami Dolphins projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.537 - 0.195
Fantasy Projection Pick: Miami Dolphins by 12. Miami Dolphins projected to win by a fantasy score of 83-48
Best Record Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3. Dolphins better at 3-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars by 3
St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 11
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 4
Vegas Lines Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 7. Chiefs by 7, Over/Under 44
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 11. Kansas City Chiefs projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.594 - 0.324
Fantasy Projection Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 7. Kansas City Chiefs projected to win by a fantasy score of 83-62
Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3. Chiefs better at 3-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 6. Patriots by 5.5, Over/Under 50.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New England Patriots by 7. New England Patriots projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.613 - 0.450
Fantasy Projection Pick: New England Patriots by 8. New England Patriots projected to win by a fantasy score of 86-64
Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better at 5-2
Home Team Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: New York Jets by 3. Jets by 3, Over/Under 41
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Buffalo Bills by 8. Buffalo Bills projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.462 - 0.268
Fantasy Projection Pick: Buffalo Bills by 7. Buffalo Bills projected to win by a fantasy score of 73-52
Best Record Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3. Bills better at 4-3
Home Team Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: Houston Texans by 2. Texans by 2, Over/Under 42.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Houston Texans by 9. Houston Texans projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.519 - 0.303
Fantasy Projection Pick: Houston Texans by 3. Houston Texans projected to win by a fantasy score of 72-63
Best Record Wins Pick: Houston Texans by 3. Texans better at 3-4
Home Team Wins Pick: Tennessee Titans by 3
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 5
Vegas Lines Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3. Buccaneers by 2.5, Over/Under 41.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 5. Minnesota Vikings projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.344 - 0.221
Fantasy Projection Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 5. Minnesota Vikings projected to win by a fantasy score of 76-63
Best Record Wins Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 3. Vikings better at 2-5
Home Team Wins Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 4
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 4
Vegas Lines Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals by 2.5, Over/Under 48
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 4. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.684 - 0.595
Fantasy Projection Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 1. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a fantasy score of 78-76
Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Both teams at 5-1, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3
Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 11
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 6
Vegas Lines Pick: Cleveland Browns by 7. Browns by 7, Over/Under 43
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Cleveland Browns by 12. Cleveland Browns projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.504 - 0.217
Fantasy Projection Pick: Cleveland Browns by 12. Cleveland Browns projected to win by a fantasy score of 82-47
Best Record Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3. Browns better at 3-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 12
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts by 3, Over/Under 49
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 11. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.750 - 0.470
Fantasy Projection Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 10. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a fantasy score of 92-63
Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts better at 5-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 9
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 5
Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 1. Saints by 1, Over/Under 55.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Green Bay Packers by 8. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.672 - 0.463
Fantasy Projection Pick: Green Bay Packers by 5. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a fantasy score of 89-76
Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Packers better at 5-2
Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3
Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 8 (2014)
Can the Broncos keep playing at a high-level following Manning's record-setting performance last week? Can the Chargers rebound from a loss to the Chiefs and take back control of the AFC West?
All system favor the Broncos at home tonight, except for the Pythagorean Theorem system, which has so far had a disappointing prediction record this season.
Thursday Night Game Prediction:
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 1
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 5
Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 8. Broncos by 8, Over/Under 51
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: San Diego Chargers by 1. San Diego Chargers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.757 - 0.742
Fantasy Projection Pick: Denver Broncos by 4. Denver Broncos projected to win by a fantasy score of 84-73
Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 5-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3
Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 8 slate...
All system favor the Broncos at home tonight, except for the Pythagorean Theorem system, which has so far had a disappointing prediction record this season.
Thursday Night Game Prediction:
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 1
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 5
Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 8. Broncos by 8, Over/Under 51
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: San Diego Chargers by 1. San Diego Chargers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.757 - 0.742
Fantasy Projection Pick: Denver Broncos by 4. Denver Broncos projected to win by a fantasy score of 84-73
Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 5-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3
Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 8 slate...
Creative Misfortune Power Rankings ~ Week 7 (2014)
Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.
When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.
The Forked Few~
Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here
# 32 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 31)
The only team left without a win.
# 31 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 32)
Nice to see the Jaguars rise up and win a game. Now they can finish the season 1-15 with a clear conscience.
# 30 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 30)
The Buccaneers have a chance to get back on track coming out of their bye week when they face a struggling Vikings team. If they can't win that game with extra time to prepare, then they are truly hopeless.
# 29 - New York Jets (previous: 29)
After the Harvin trade, the Jets now have one more weapon for Geno Smith to miss on a deep crossing pattern.
# 28 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 28)
Big win against the Seahawks, but nobody should be surprised the Rams played Seattle so well. If they were, they haven't been paying attention to the recent games between these two franchises.
The Creatively Challenged~
Folly remains ever their mistress
# 27 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 26)
The Titans continue to struggle.
# 26 - Washington Redskins (previous: 27)
Kirk Cousins was not the answer. Colt McCoy isn't the answer. I doubt RGIII will be the answer when he gets back on the field. Injuries on the defense won't ease the burden on the offense any time soon.
# 25 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 22)
Maybe the Falcons can rediscover their winning ways on a new continent this weekend.
# 24 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 25)
A last-second loss hurts, no matter how jaded Vikings fans are.
# 23 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 21)
Nobody knows what to make of the Panthers this season. Lucky for them the rest of the NFC South is in complete disarray.
# 22 - Chicago Bears (previous: 17)
Without defense, the offense just isn't playing well enough for them to win games.
# 21 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 24)
They had it and then they lost it. Despite their struggles, the Saints still are far from out of it.
The Remarkably Average~
Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory
# 20 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 19)
The Bills are 2-1 since handing the reigns to Kyle Orton, but he is still little more than a caretaker quarterback. The future quarterback in Buffalo is playing college ball somewhere right now.
# 19 - New York Giants (previous: 18)
The Giants were overmatched against Dallas and head into their bye week with tons of questions and very few answers.
# 18 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 10)
Since starting 3-0, the Bengals have lost twice badly and tied a game they easily should have won. With the Ravens and Steelers surging, and even the Browns playing competitively, Cincinnati needs to get back into the win column sooner rather than later, otherwise their once promising season will be lost.
# 17 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 23)
Like the Panthers, who knows which version of the Steelers will show up and play any given weekend… or any given half.
# 16 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 13)
The 49ers were completely outplayed by the Broncos. Kaepernick needs to play more like Russell Wilson if the 49ers hope to return to the playoffs.
# 15 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 20)
The Dolphins need every win they can get if they hope to keep pace with the Patriots.
# 14 - Houston Texans (previous: 15)
The Texans are starting to lose their grip on this season. A few more losses and it will slip away from them completely.
# 13 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 12)
Just when you think the Browns have turned the corner, they go into Jacksonville and get clobbered by the winless Jaguars.
The Fortunate Seven~
The best of those not yet elite
# 12 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 9)
The timing of the Harvin trade couldn't have been good for team chemistry heading into the game against St. Louis. The Seahawks should be fine once they realize they can play better without the distractions in the locker room.
# 11 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 16)
The Chiefs get a much-needed division win, but they'll remain on the outside looking in as long as Denver doesn't stumble.
# 10 - New England Patriots (previous: 11)
Looks like Brady and company are back. How about that Shane Vereen guy? He not only can run the ball, he can catch it, too!
# 9 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 14)
It's still hard to believe the Cardinals are as good as their record, but if they can knock off Philadelphia and win this weekend, they'll quiet down a lot of critics.
# 8 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 1)
Did the Chiefs expose the Chargers last weekend? If so, they better correct their issues quickly, otherwise the Broncos will demolish them on Thursday night in Colorado.
# 7 - Detroit Lions (previous: 7)
The Lions are winning with defense. What fun is that?
# 6 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 8)
Aaron Rodgers must have known what he was talking about when he told the Cheeseheads to calm down and stop panicking after Green Bay's shaky 1-2 start.
The Creative Elite~
Wielding misfortune at its finest
# 5 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 6)
The Ravens have found their stride after their early season, off-the-field issues and appear to be the team to beat now in the AFC North.
# 4 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 5)
The Colts are one of the hottest teams in the league and are beginning to run away with their division.
# 3 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 4)
Enough good can't be said about Dallas' surprising 6-1 start. DeMarco Murray's run can't continue at its prolific pace, so Tony Romo and the receivers will need to step up their game just a bit to help the Cowboys find true balance as they charge into the playoffs.
# 2 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 2)
The Eagles come out of their bye week ready to square off against the surging Arizona Cardinals in a game that could have big playoff significance come January.
# 1 - Denver Broncos (previous: 3)
After Peyton Manning's historic, record-setting game last Sunday, the Broncos now have a chance to take complete control of their division on Thursday night when the Chargers come to town.
Week 7 Power Ranking Awards:
The Free Fallers - Cincinnati Bengals (-8), San Diego Chargers (-7), Chicago Bears (-5), Seattle Seahawks (-3), San Francisco 49ers (-3)
The Biggest Movers - Pittsburgh Steelers (+6), Arizona Cardinals (+5), Kansas City Chiefs (+5), Miami Dolphins (+5), New Orleans Saints (+3)
Maintaining The Status Quo - Philadelphia Eagles (2), Detroit Lions (7), St. Louis Rams (28), New York Jets (29), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (30)
Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLIX Favorites ~ After Week 7
AFC Favorite:
Denver Broncos
NFC Favorite:
Philadelphia Eagles
Check back tomorrow for week 8 predictions.
When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.
The Forked Few~
Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here
# 32 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 31)
The only team left without a win.
# 31 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 32)
Nice to see the Jaguars rise up and win a game. Now they can finish the season 1-15 with a clear conscience.
# 30 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 30)
The Buccaneers have a chance to get back on track coming out of their bye week when they face a struggling Vikings team. If they can't win that game with extra time to prepare, then they are truly hopeless.
# 29 - New York Jets (previous: 29)
After the Harvin trade, the Jets now have one more weapon for Geno Smith to miss on a deep crossing pattern.
# 28 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 28)
Big win against the Seahawks, but nobody should be surprised the Rams played Seattle so well. If they were, they haven't been paying attention to the recent games between these two franchises.
The Creatively Challenged~
Folly remains ever their mistress
# 27 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 26)
The Titans continue to struggle.
# 26 - Washington Redskins (previous: 27)
Kirk Cousins was not the answer. Colt McCoy isn't the answer. I doubt RGIII will be the answer when he gets back on the field. Injuries on the defense won't ease the burden on the offense any time soon.
# 25 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 22)
Maybe the Falcons can rediscover their winning ways on a new continent this weekend.
# 24 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 25)
A last-second loss hurts, no matter how jaded Vikings fans are.
# 23 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 21)
Nobody knows what to make of the Panthers this season. Lucky for them the rest of the NFC South is in complete disarray.
# 22 - Chicago Bears (previous: 17)
Without defense, the offense just isn't playing well enough for them to win games.
# 21 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 24)
They had it and then they lost it. Despite their struggles, the Saints still are far from out of it.
The Remarkably Average~
Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory
# 20 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 19)
The Bills are 2-1 since handing the reigns to Kyle Orton, but he is still little more than a caretaker quarterback. The future quarterback in Buffalo is playing college ball somewhere right now.
# 19 - New York Giants (previous: 18)
The Giants were overmatched against Dallas and head into their bye week with tons of questions and very few answers.
# 18 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 10)
Since starting 3-0, the Bengals have lost twice badly and tied a game they easily should have won. With the Ravens and Steelers surging, and even the Browns playing competitively, Cincinnati needs to get back into the win column sooner rather than later, otherwise their once promising season will be lost.
# 17 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 23)
Like the Panthers, who knows which version of the Steelers will show up and play any given weekend… or any given half.
# 16 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 13)
The 49ers were completely outplayed by the Broncos. Kaepernick needs to play more like Russell Wilson if the 49ers hope to return to the playoffs.
# 15 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 20)
The Dolphins need every win they can get if they hope to keep pace with the Patriots.
# 14 - Houston Texans (previous: 15)
The Texans are starting to lose their grip on this season. A few more losses and it will slip away from them completely.
# 13 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 12)
Just when you think the Browns have turned the corner, they go into Jacksonville and get clobbered by the winless Jaguars.
The Fortunate Seven~
The best of those not yet elite
# 12 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 9)
The timing of the Harvin trade couldn't have been good for team chemistry heading into the game against St. Louis. The Seahawks should be fine once they realize they can play better without the distractions in the locker room.
# 11 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 16)
The Chiefs get a much-needed division win, but they'll remain on the outside looking in as long as Denver doesn't stumble.
# 10 - New England Patriots (previous: 11)
Looks like Brady and company are back. How about that Shane Vereen guy? He not only can run the ball, he can catch it, too!
# 9 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 14)
It's still hard to believe the Cardinals are as good as their record, but if they can knock off Philadelphia and win this weekend, they'll quiet down a lot of critics.
# 8 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 1)
Did the Chiefs expose the Chargers last weekend? If so, they better correct their issues quickly, otherwise the Broncos will demolish them on Thursday night in Colorado.
# 7 - Detroit Lions (previous: 7)
The Lions are winning with defense. What fun is that?
# 6 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 8)
Aaron Rodgers must have known what he was talking about when he told the Cheeseheads to calm down and stop panicking after Green Bay's shaky 1-2 start.
The Creative Elite~
Wielding misfortune at its finest
# 5 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 6)
The Ravens have found their stride after their early season, off-the-field issues and appear to be the team to beat now in the AFC North.
# 4 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 5)
The Colts are one of the hottest teams in the league and are beginning to run away with their division.
# 3 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 4)
Enough good can't be said about Dallas' surprising 6-1 start. DeMarco Murray's run can't continue at its prolific pace, so Tony Romo and the receivers will need to step up their game just a bit to help the Cowboys find true balance as they charge into the playoffs.
# 2 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 2)
The Eagles come out of their bye week ready to square off against the surging Arizona Cardinals in a game that could have big playoff significance come January.
# 1 - Denver Broncos (previous: 3)
After Peyton Manning's historic, record-setting game last Sunday, the Broncos now have a chance to take complete control of their division on Thursday night when the Chargers come to town.
Week 7 Power Ranking Awards:
The Free Fallers - Cincinnati Bengals (-8), San Diego Chargers (-7), Chicago Bears (-5), Seattle Seahawks (-3), San Francisco 49ers (-3)
The Biggest Movers - Pittsburgh Steelers (+6), Arizona Cardinals (+5), Kansas City Chiefs (+5), Miami Dolphins (+5), New Orleans Saints (+3)
Maintaining The Status Quo - Philadelphia Eagles (2), Detroit Lions (7), St. Louis Rams (28), New York Jets (29), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (30)
Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLIX Favorites ~ After Week 7
AFC Favorite:
Denver Broncos
NFC Favorite:
Check back tomorrow for week 8 predictions.
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Week 7 Results (2014) ~ "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..."
The fantasy season is over halfway through its 12-week schedule and all teams still have a shot to make the fantasy playoffs, which begin in week 13. Some teams just have a better shot than others! The New York Jets (1-6), Oakland Raiders (1-5) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6) all are on life support and most likely will be eliminated from fantasy playoff consideration within the next week or two.
In week 7, the New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks, and the Tennessee Titans all managed to win fantasy games they lost in real life.
High score of the week goes to the Denver Broncos, who scored 119 points against the San Francisco 49ers during Peyton Manning's historic, record-setting performance. The only other team to grace the century mark in fantasy points this week was the Green Bay Packers, who hung an even 100 points on the Carolina Panthers.
Low score falls to the Cincinnati Bengals at 22 points, who were unable to score enough fantasy points to beat the real 27 points the Indianapolis Colts scored against them.
Closest Game of the Week: Tennessee Titans 52, Washington Redskins 51. The Titans finally notch another win (in the fantasy world at least) as Washington continues to struggle with inconsistent quarterback play. Can Colt McCoy become the answer for them, both in the real world and in the fantasy standings? Doubtful, because Washington is a mess from top to bottom.
Fantasy Star of the Week: Russell Wilson, 36 points. Russell Wilson is showing just how versatile and dangerous he can be these days, leading the Seahawks to a fantasy win, even though special teams cost them an actual victory over the St. Louis Rams this weekend. San Francisco 49er fans must love that Seattle's quarterback is doing everything Kaepernick should be doing, but far better.
Week 7 Game Results:
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Fantasy Score: New England Patriots 81, New York Jets 74
New York's Key Performers: Chris Ivory (17), Geno Smith (16), Nick Folk (14)
New England's Key Performers: Shane Vereen (23), Tom Brady (22), Stephen Gostkowski (9)
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills
Fantasy Score: Buffalo Bills 72, Minnesota Vikings 66
Minnesota's Key Performers: Defense (15), Blair Walsh (13), Jerick McKinnon (10)
Buffalo's Key Performers: Sammy Watkins (24), Kyle Orton (15), Defense (10)
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears
Fantasy Score: Miami Dolphins 86, Chicago Bears 45
Miami's Key Performers: Ryan Tannehill (23), Lamar Miller (14), Charles Clay (11)
Chicago's Key Performers: Matt Forte (22), Jay Cutler (7), Martellus Bennett (5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
Fantasy Score: Indianapolis Colts 95, Cincinnati Bengals 22
Cincinnati's Key Performers: Defense (5), Mohamed Sanu (5), Andy Dalton (5)
Indianapolis' Key Performers: Andrew Luck (19), Ahmad Bradshaw (18), Defense (14)
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
Fantasy Score: New Orleans Saints 79, Detroit Lions 75
New Orleans' Key Performers: Drew Brees (20), Kenny Stills (16), Shayne Graham (12)
Detroit's Key Performers: Golden Tate (21), Matthew Stafford (15), Joique Bell (11)
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
Fantasy Score: Green Bay Packers 100, Carolina Panthers 53
Carolina's Key Performers: Cam Newton (14), Kelvin Benjamin (12), Greg Olsen (10)
Green Bay's Key Performers: Aaron Rodgers (24), Randall Cobb (18), Jordy Nelson (14)
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Fantasy Score: Jacksonville Jaguars 72, Cleveland Browns 41
Cleveland's Key Performers: Andrew Hawkins (11), Defense (7), Billy Cundiff (7)
Jacksonville's Key Performers: Denard Robinson (18), Defense (16), Allen Robinson (12)
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams
Fantasy Score: Seattle Seahawks 86, St. Louis Rams 68
Seattle's Key Performers: Russell Wilson (36), Doug Baldwin (18), Cooper Helfet (12)
St. Louis' Key Performers: Austin Davis (14), Tre Mason (14), Benjamin Cunningham (10)
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens
Fantasy Score: Baltimore Ravens 85, Atlanta Falcons 44
Atlanta's Key Performers: Roddy White (16), Matt Ryan (11), Julio Jones (5)
Baltimore's Key Performers: Torrey Smith (14), Joe Flacco (14), Defense (13)
Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins
Fantasy Score: Tennessee Titans 52, Washington Redskins 51
Tennessee's Key Performers: Charlie Whitehurst (13), Kendall Wright (12), Derek Hagan (10)
Washington's Key Performers: Pierre Garcon (14), Kai Forbath (13), Defense (6)
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers
Fantasy Score: Kansas City Chiefs 69, San Diego Chargers 56
Kansas City's Key Performers: Jamaal Charles (16), Alex Smith (14), Cairo Santos (13)
San Diego's Key Performers: Philip Rivers (14), Antonio Gates (12), Nick Novak (9)
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Fantasy Score: Dallas Cowboys 92, New York Giants 64
New York's Key Performers: Eli Manning (22), Odell Beckham Jr. (16), Daniel Fells (8)
Dallas' Key Performers: Tony Romo (21), DeMarco Murray (18), Gavin Escobar (18)
Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders
Fantasy Score: Arizona Cardinals 78, Oakland Raiders 38
Arizona's Key Performers: Stepfan Taylor (17), Carson Palmer (16), Andre Ellington (15)
Oakland's Key Performers: Darren McFadden (10), Sebastian Janikowski (9), Derek Carr (6)
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos
Fantasy Score: Denver Broncos 119, San Francisco 49ers 46
San Francisco's Key Performers: Colin Kaepernick (13), Stevie Johnson (13), Bruce Ellington (10)
Denver's Key Performers: Demaryius Thomas (29), Peyton Manning (28), Ronnie Hillman (21)
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 86, Houston Texans 70
Houston's Key Performers: Ryan Fitzpatrick (17), Arian Foster (15), Randy Bullock (11)
Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Le'Veon Bell (19), Ben Roethlisberger (16), Shaun Suisham (14)
Tomorrow, The Art of Creative Misfortune Power Rankings
In week 7, the New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks, and the Tennessee Titans all managed to win fantasy games they lost in real life.
High score of the week goes to the Denver Broncos, who scored 119 points against the San Francisco 49ers during Peyton Manning's historic, record-setting performance. The only other team to grace the century mark in fantasy points this week was the Green Bay Packers, who hung an even 100 points on the Carolina Panthers.
Low score falls to the Cincinnati Bengals at 22 points, who were unable to score enough fantasy points to beat the real 27 points the Indianapolis Colts scored against them.
Closest Game of the Week: Tennessee Titans 52, Washington Redskins 51. The Titans finally notch another win (in the fantasy world at least) as Washington continues to struggle with inconsistent quarterback play. Can Colt McCoy become the answer for them, both in the real world and in the fantasy standings? Doubtful, because Washington is a mess from top to bottom.
Fantasy Star of the Week: Russell Wilson, 36 points. Russell Wilson is showing just how versatile and dangerous he can be these days, leading the Seahawks to a fantasy win, even though special teams cost them an actual victory over the St. Louis Rams this weekend. San Francisco 49er fans must love that Seattle's quarterback is doing everything Kaepernick should be doing, but far better.
Week 7 Game Results:
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Fantasy Score: New England Patriots 81, New York Jets 74
New York's Key Performers: Chris Ivory (17), Geno Smith (16), Nick Folk (14)
New England's Key Performers: Shane Vereen (23), Tom Brady (22), Stephen Gostkowski (9)
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills
Fantasy Score: Buffalo Bills 72, Minnesota Vikings 66
Minnesota's Key Performers: Defense (15), Blair Walsh (13), Jerick McKinnon (10)
Buffalo's Key Performers: Sammy Watkins (24), Kyle Orton (15), Defense (10)
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears
Fantasy Score: Miami Dolphins 86, Chicago Bears 45
Miami's Key Performers: Ryan Tannehill (23), Lamar Miller (14), Charles Clay (11)
Chicago's Key Performers: Matt Forte (22), Jay Cutler (7), Martellus Bennett (5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
Fantasy Score: Indianapolis Colts 95, Cincinnati Bengals 22
Cincinnati's Key Performers: Defense (5), Mohamed Sanu (5), Andy Dalton (5)
Indianapolis' Key Performers: Andrew Luck (19), Ahmad Bradshaw (18), Defense (14)
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
Fantasy Score: New Orleans Saints 79, Detroit Lions 75
New Orleans' Key Performers: Drew Brees (20), Kenny Stills (16), Shayne Graham (12)
Detroit's Key Performers: Golden Tate (21), Matthew Stafford (15), Joique Bell (11)
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
Fantasy Score: Green Bay Packers 100, Carolina Panthers 53
Carolina's Key Performers: Cam Newton (14), Kelvin Benjamin (12), Greg Olsen (10)
Green Bay's Key Performers: Aaron Rodgers (24), Randall Cobb (18), Jordy Nelson (14)
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Fantasy Score: Jacksonville Jaguars 72, Cleveland Browns 41
Cleveland's Key Performers: Andrew Hawkins (11), Defense (7), Billy Cundiff (7)
Jacksonville's Key Performers: Denard Robinson (18), Defense (16), Allen Robinson (12)
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams
Fantasy Score: Seattle Seahawks 86, St. Louis Rams 68
Seattle's Key Performers: Russell Wilson (36), Doug Baldwin (18), Cooper Helfet (12)
St. Louis' Key Performers: Austin Davis (14), Tre Mason (14), Benjamin Cunningham (10)
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens
Fantasy Score: Baltimore Ravens 85, Atlanta Falcons 44
Atlanta's Key Performers: Roddy White (16), Matt Ryan (11), Julio Jones (5)
Baltimore's Key Performers: Torrey Smith (14), Joe Flacco (14), Defense (13)
Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins
Fantasy Score: Tennessee Titans 52, Washington Redskins 51
Tennessee's Key Performers: Charlie Whitehurst (13), Kendall Wright (12), Derek Hagan (10)
Washington's Key Performers: Pierre Garcon (14), Kai Forbath (13), Defense (6)
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers
Fantasy Score: Kansas City Chiefs 69, San Diego Chargers 56
Kansas City's Key Performers: Jamaal Charles (16), Alex Smith (14), Cairo Santos (13)
San Diego's Key Performers: Philip Rivers (14), Antonio Gates (12), Nick Novak (9)
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Fantasy Score: Dallas Cowboys 92, New York Giants 64
New York's Key Performers: Eli Manning (22), Odell Beckham Jr. (16), Daniel Fells (8)
Dallas' Key Performers: Tony Romo (21), DeMarco Murray (18), Gavin Escobar (18)
Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders
Fantasy Score: Arizona Cardinals 78, Oakland Raiders 38
Arizona's Key Performers: Stepfan Taylor (17), Carson Palmer (16), Andre Ellington (15)
Oakland's Key Performers: Darren McFadden (10), Sebastian Janikowski (9), Derek Carr (6)
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos
Fantasy Score: Denver Broncos 119, San Francisco 49ers 46
San Francisco's Key Performers: Colin Kaepernick (13), Stevie Johnson (13), Bruce Ellington (10)
Denver's Key Performers: Demaryius Thomas (29), Peyton Manning (28), Ronnie Hillman (21)
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 86, Houston Texans 70
Houston's Key Performers: Ryan Fitzpatrick (17), Arian Foster (15), Randy Bullock (11)
Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Le'Veon Bell (19), Ben Roethlisberger (16), Shaun Suisham (14)
Tomorrow, The Art of Creative Misfortune Power Rankings
Monday, October 20, 2014
Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 7 (2014)
With the Monday Night game remaining in week 7, the seventh week of predictions showed the following results for our systems...
Best overall picks of the week went to Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY and the blind Home Team Wins formulas. Both systems exceeded the 70% accuracy mark by hitting 10 out of 14 games correctly (71.4%)
Almost all other systems picked a solid 9 out of 14 games correctly, for a very respectable 64.3% accuracy.
The blind Best Record Wins formula finished with the worst predictions of the week, only predicting 8 out of 14 games correctly for 57.1% accuracy, the traditional success rate for just picking the home team to win.
The prediction systems are split on tonight's matchup between Pittsburgh and Houston. Both Creative Misfortune's PPY formulas and the Pythagorean Theorem formula favor the Texans to win on the road. The Vegas Lines, Fantasy Projections, and the two blind pick systems favor the Steelers to prevail at home. It should be a good game that could go either way.
Monday Night Game Prediction:
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 5
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers by 3, Over/Under 44.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Houston Texans by 5. Houston Texans projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.556 - 0.433
Fantasy Projection Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 5. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a fantasy score of 77-63
Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Both teams at 3-3, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3
Week 7 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?
Best overall picks of the week went to Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY and the blind Home Team Wins formulas. Both systems exceeded the 70% accuracy mark by hitting 10 out of 14 games correctly (71.4%)
Almost all other systems picked a solid 9 out of 14 games correctly, for a very respectable 64.3% accuracy.
The blind Best Record Wins formula finished with the worst predictions of the week, only predicting 8 out of 14 games correctly for 57.1% accuracy, the traditional success rate for just picking the home team to win.
The prediction systems are split on tonight's matchup between Pittsburgh and Houston. Both Creative Misfortune's PPY formulas and the Pythagorean Theorem formula favor the Texans to win on the road. The Vegas Lines, Fantasy Projections, and the two blind pick systems favor the Steelers to prevail at home. It should be a good game that could go either way.
Monday Night Game Prediction:
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 5
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers by 3, Over/Under 44.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Houston Texans by 5. Houston Texans projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.556 - 0.433
Fantasy Projection Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 5. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a fantasy score of 77-63
Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Both teams at 3-3, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3
Week 7 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?
Friday, October 17, 2014
Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Week 7 (2014)
A lot of strong teams are playing at home in Week 7. It will be difficult for many teams to win on the road this week.
Sunday Game Predictions:
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 5
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Buffalo Bills by 6. Bills by 5.5, Over/Under 43
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Buffalo Bills by 6. Buffalo Bills projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.461 - 0.320
Fantasy Projection Pick: Buffalo Bills by 6. Buffalo Bills projected to win by a fantasy score of 69-52
Best Record Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3. Bills better at 3-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 1
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 6
Vegas Lines Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. bears by 3, Over/Under 49
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Chicago Bears by 1. Chicago Bears projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.496 - 0.481
Fantasy Projection Pick: Chicago Bears by 2. Chicago Bears projected to win by a fantasy score of 77-72
Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. Bears better at 3-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 4
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 10
Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts by 3, Over/Under 49.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.686 - 0.600
Fantasy Projection Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 7. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a fantasy score of 93-74
Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts better at 4-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 9
Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions by 2.5, Over/Under 48.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Detroit Lions by 9. Detroit Lions projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.695 - 0.461
Fantasy Projection Pick: Detroit Lions by 5. Detroit Lions projected to win by a fantasy score of 74-61
Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 4-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 14
Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 7. Packers by 7, Over/Under 48.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Green Bay Packers by 8. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.624 - 0.437
Fantasy Projection Pick: Green Bay Packers by 9. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a fantasy score of 88-63
Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Packers better at 4-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 22
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 9
Vegas Lines Pick: Cleveland Browns by 6. Browns by 5.5, Over/Under 45
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Cleveland Browns by 19. Cleveland Browns projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.59 - 0.124
Fantasy Projection Pick: Cleveland Browns by 14. Cleveland Browns projected to win by a fantasy score of 97-57
Best Record Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3. Browns better at 3-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars by 3
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 14
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 8
Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 7. Seahawks by 6.5, Over/Under 43.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 13. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.595 - 0.281
Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 1. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a fantasy score of 80-79
Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks better at 3-2
Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 13
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 13
Vegas Lines Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 7. Ravens by 7, Over/Under 49
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 12. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.776 - 0.479
Fantasy Projection Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 10. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a fantasy score of 95-67
Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Ravens better at 4-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3
Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 3
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 4
Vegas Lines Pick: Washington Redskins by 5. Redskins by 5, Over/Under 46
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Washington Redskins by 3. Washington Redskins projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.367 - 0.286
Fantasy Projection Pick: Washington Redskins by 6. Washington Redskins projected to win by a fantasy score of 84-67
Best Record Wins Pick: Tennessee Titans by 3. Titans better at 2-4
Home Team Wins Pick: Washington Redskins by 3
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Diego Chargers by 9
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Diego Chargers by 9
Vegas Lines Pick: San Diego Chargers by 4. Chargers by 4, Over/Under 45
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: San Diego Chargers by 8. San Diego Chargers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.802 - 0.596
Fantasy Projection Pick: San Diego Chargers by 11. San Diego Chargers projected to win by a fantasy score of 87-56
Best Record Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3. Chargers better at 5-1
Home Team Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 5
Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7. Cowboys by 6.5, Over/Under 48
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.655 - 0.478
Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 11. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a fantasy score of 86-56
Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 5-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3
Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 13
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 5
Vegas Lines Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 4. Cardinals by 3.5, Over/Under 44
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 13. Arizona Cardinals projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.553 - 0.222
Fantasy Projection Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 6. Arizona Cardinals projected to win by a fantasy score of 74-57
Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals better at 4-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Oakland Raiders by 3
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 5
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 7. Broncos by 7, Over/Under 49.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Denver Broncos by 5. Denver Broncos projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.694 - 0.580
Fantasy Projection Pick: Denver Broncos by 9. Denver Broncos projected to win by a fantasy score of 85-59
Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 4-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3
Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.
Sunday Game Predictions:
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 5
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Buffalo Bills by 6. Bills by 5.5, Over/Under 43
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Buffalo Bills by 6. Buffalo Bills projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.461 - 0.320
Fantasy Projection Pick: Buffalo Bills by 6. Buffalo Bills projected to win by a fantasy score of 69-52
Best Record Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3. Bills better at 3-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 1
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 6
Vegas Lines Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. bears by 3, Over/Under 49
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Chicago Bears by 1. Chicago Bears projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.496 - 0.481
Fantasy Projection Pick: Chicago Bears by 2. Chicago Bears projected to win by a fantasy score of 77-72
Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. Bears better at 3-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 4
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 10
Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts by 3, Over/Under 49.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.686 - 0.600
Fantasy Projection Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 7. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a fantasy score of 93-74
Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts better at 4-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 9
Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions by 2.5, Over/Under 48.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Detroit Lions by 9. Detroit Lions projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.695 - 0.461
Fantasy Projection Pick: Detroit Lions by 5. Detroit Lions projected to win by a fantasy score of 74-61
Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 4-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 14
Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 7. Packers by 7, Over/Under 48.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Green Bay Packers by 8. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.624 - 0.437
Fantasy Projection Pick: Green Bay Packers by 9. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a fantasy score of 88-63
Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Packers better at 4-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 22
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 9
Vegas Lines Pick: Cleveland Browns by 6. Browns by 5.5, Over/Under 45
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Cleveland Browns by 19. Cleveland Browns projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.59 - 0.124
Fantasy Projection Pick: Cleveland Browns by 14. Cleveland Browns projected to win by a fantasy score of 97-57
Best Record Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3. Browns better at 3-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars by 3
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 14
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 8
Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 7. Seahawks by 6.5, Over/Under 43.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 13. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.595 - 0.281
Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 1. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a fantasy score of 80-79
Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks better at 3-2
Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 13
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 13
Vegas Lines Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 7. Ravens by 7, Over/Under 49
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 12. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.776 - 0.479
Fantasy Projection Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 10. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a fantasy score of 95-67
Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Ravens better at 4-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3
Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 3
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 4
Vegas Lines Pick: Washington Redskins by 5. Redskins by 5, Over/Under 46
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Washington Redskins by 3. Washington Redskins projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.367 - 0.286
Fantasy Projection Pick: Washington Redskins by 6. Washington Redskins projected to win by a fantasy score of 84-67
Best Record Wins Pick: Tennessee Titans by 3. Titans better at 2-4
Home Team Wins Pick: Washington Redskins by 3
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Diego Chargers by 9
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Diego Chargers by 9
Vegas Lines Pick: San Diego Chargers by 4. Chargers by 4, Over/Under 45
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: San Diego Chargers by 8. San Diego Chargers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.802 - 0.596
Fantasy Projection Pick: San Diego Chargers by 11. San Diego Chargers projected to win by a fantasy score of 87-56
Best Record Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3. Chargers better at 5-1
Home Team Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 5
Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7. Cowboys by 6.5, Over/Under 48
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.655 - 0.478
Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 11. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a fantasy score of 86-56
Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 5-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3
Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 13
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 5
Vegas Lines Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 4. Cardinals by 3.5, Over/Under 44
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 13. Arizona Cardinals projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.553 - 0.222
Fantasy Projection Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 6. Arizona Cardinals projected to win by a fantasy score of 74-57
Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals better at 4-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Oakland Raiders by 3
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 5
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 7. Broncos by 7, Over/Under 49.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Denver Broncos by 5. Denver Broncos projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.694 - 0.580
Fantasy Projection Pick: Denver Broncos by 9. Denver Broncos projected to win by a fantasy score of 85-59
Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 4-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3
Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.
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