Thursday, September 11, 2014

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings ~ Week 1 (2014)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

The Forked Few~
     Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here

     # 32 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 31)
                    Jacksonville had the Eagles right where they wanted them and then they started playing like the Jaguars we have come to expect. Despite having more potential than last year, the Jags will be lucky to get more than four wins in 2014.

     # 31 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 29)
                    It doesn't look like Shaun Hill is the second coming of Kurt Warner. The Rams continue to shake off the loss of Sam Bradford for yet another season.

     # 30 - Washington Redskins (previous: 27)
                    With the team struggling so mightily, now is the perfect time to change the name. Give the Redskins a new identity, one less offensive, and they will become great again.

     # 29 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 14)
                    A rough game against the Seahawks has Packer fans scared for what this season will bring. They should be able to even their record at home against the Jets this weekend, so it's probably too early for Cheeseheads to start panicking.

     # 28 - New York Giants (previous: 24)
                    The Giants played so poorly on Monday night, Michael Strahan almost came out of retirement to give them some help. So much for going undefeated in the preseason.



The Creatively Challenged~
     Folly remains ever their mistress

     # 27 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 32)
                    The Raiders showed some flashes of potential in New York on Sunday, but really, how many people saw that game? Did you watch it? I didn't think so.

     # 26 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 30)
                    The Bucs played to expectations and are clearly the worst team in the NFC South.

     # 25 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 12)
                    Nobody remembers the 9-0 start the Chiefs had last year and if they continue to play like this, we could be talking about them starting the season 0-9.

     # 24 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 26)
                    They came up short in Pittsburgh, but at least Hoyer played well enough to keep Johnny Football on the bench for at least another week.

     # 23 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 10)
                    I hope, I really hope, the Ravens, and the NFL, did not see the elevator video of Ray Rice punching out his then-fiance before the video surfaced earlier this week. Regardless of the timing, though, the NFL's new stance on domestic violence is good to see. Unfortunately it should not take such great public outcry for the NFL to see the need for it.

     # 22 - Chicago Bears (previous: 13)
                    I don't remember a Bears team ever being this weak on defense. If the defense continues to struggle, will Cutler and the offense be able to hold this team together?

     # 21 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 15)
                    The defense played slightly better than expected and the offense played far worse than people ever imagined. Romo still does not seem right after back surgery this offseason and it will take some time for him to get his timing down with the receivers. Dallas is an explosive enough team that they can win eight games and self-destructive enough that they could easily lose ten. It could be a long season for the Cowboys. Coach Garrett better figure out a way to change the team's fortune, otherwise Dallas will be looking for a new coach sooner rather than later.



The Remarkably Average~
     Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory

     # 20 - New England Patriots (previous: 8)
                    People have been looking for the beginning of the end of the Brady Dynasty in New England. Looks like we may have just witnessed it.

     # 19 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 5)
                    A big, second-half rally kept the final score with the Broncos respectable, but despite Luck's ability to lift the Colts up late, Denver clearly was the superior team last weekend.

     # 18 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 20)
                    The Chargers once again take high expectations and underperform. They weren't expected to win on Monday night, but they also weren't expected to lose a game they had won, either. Oh wait, they are still the Chargers.

     # 17 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 1)
                    Did the Saints overlook their division rivals on Sunday? It would seem so. Or maybe the Saints aren't as good as everybody thought and the Falcons are better than people expected. Truth is probably somewhere in between those statements.

     # 16 - New York Jets (previous: 25)
                    Yay, the Jets beat the Raiders at home… barely. New York fans must be proud.

     # 15 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 22)
                    Are we looking at the 2012 Atlanta Falcons or just a luckier version of the 2013 Atlanta Falcons? A few more weeks will let us know for real one way or the other.

     # 14 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 23)
                    Huge win on the road in Chicago. It's been a long time since a Bills team has been this far above .500 so early in the season.

     # 13 - Houston Texans (previous: 18)
                    The Texans are back! Well, sort of. After taking the entire 2013 season off they'll have to do more than just beat Washington before people start believing in them again.



The Fortunate Seven~
     The best of those not yet elite

     # 12 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 17)
                    The Cardinals need every win they can scrape together if they hope to challenge the Seahawks and 49ers for the division title. Larry Fitzgerald's father may be upset that the days of Arizona forcing the ball to Larry are over, but the new approach bodes well for the Cardinals and their hopes for the future.

     # 11 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 7)
                    Despite some off the field drama heading into the season, the Steelers started with a shaky win at home over the Browns. Up 24-3, they barely managed to win 30-27 on a last second field goal. Could the late comeback by the Browns be a sign of age finally catching up with the Steelers?

     # 10 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 19)
                    Why is it the Dolphins are the only team that seems to be able to surprise the Patriots? Don't get me wrong, I love seeing the Dolphins defeat the New England with new tactics. I'm surprised the rest of the league can't figure out how to do the same.

     # 9 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 16)
                    No Cam Newton, no problem. The Panthers played solid, well-rounded football in week 1. The Bucs may not be the best test for them, but it's never easy to win on the road in the NFL and the Panthers did just that with their backup quarterback at the helm.

     # 8 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 4)
                    Not a pretty win, but it's always great to start the season off with a road victory over a division rival. Cincinnati remains the team to beat in the AFC North.

     # 7 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 28)
                    The Vikings' huge win over the Rams, though somewhat unexpected, was not surprising. They have a stout defense, a young, talented offense and dynamic special teams. They still, most likely, will be the odd team out in the NFC Central, but for now Viking fans should enjoy this bit of sunshine in their season, because winter is coming.

     # 6 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 11)
                    Solid all the way around. Unfortunately for them, they have to play Seattle twice this season. If they can win at least one of those games, they'll have a chance to steal the division away from the Super Bowl champion Seahawks.



The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 5 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 21)
                    The surprise of week 1, could the Titans have come together as a team after finally cutting ties with Chris Johnson during the offseason? Still too early to tell, but for now, the Titans are showing a lot more promise than they have in recent years.

     # 4 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 6)
                    After struggling in the first half against a woeful Jaguars team, the Eagles exploded for 34 points and reminded everybody why they are dangerous and the team in complete control of the weak NFC East.

     # 3 - Denver Broncos (previous: 2)
                    Manning became only the second quarterback in NFL history to have beaten every team in the NFL when the Broncos knocked off the Colts in the season opener. Could this be his swan song season? Let's hope not, but if it is, the Broncos have a great chance to send him off to retirement with a championship like they did Elway.

     # 2 - Detroit Lions (previous: 9)
                    Explosive on offense, powerful on defense, and completely undisciplined on both sides of the ball. If the Lions don't self-destruct as they have in past seasons, this could be the year they finally put it all together.

     # 1 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 3)
                    The Seahawks have picked up right where they left off and could be the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champions in a long time.



Week 1 Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - New Orleans Saints (-16), Green Bay Packers (-15), Indianapolis Colts (-14), Baltimore Ravens (-13), Kansas City Chiefs (-13)

The Biggest Movers - Minnesota Vikings (+21), Tennessee Titans (+16), Miami Dolphins (+9), Buffalo Bills (+9), New York Jets (+9)

Maintaining The Status Quo - No teams maintained their ranking from last week.

Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLIX Favorite ~ After Week 1

Seattle Seahawks


Check back tomorrow for week 2 predictions.

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