With the Monday Night game remaining in week 4, the fourth week of predictions showed the following results for our systems...
It was a rough week for predictions. The Vegas Lines formula won the week by picking 8 out of 12 games correctly over the weekend (66.7%). This is the first time all season the Vegas Lines formula has bested all the other prediction systems.
The Pythagorean Theorem, Best Record Wins and Home Team Wins systems all tied for second place by picking 7 out of 12 games correctly (58.3%).
Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula, after exceeeding the 70% accuracy mark last week, dropped off significantly this week and only predicted 5 out of 12 games correctly for a very disappointing 41.7% accuracy for the week.
The worst prediction performances of the week were turned in by Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula and the Fantasy Projections system. Both prediction systems only managed to pick 4 out of 12 games correctly for a season-low accuracy of 33.3%.
All systems, except the Home Team Wins system, favor the New England Patriots to win on the road tonight.
Monday Night Game Prediction:
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 5
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 11
Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 4. Patriots by 3.5, Over/Under 45
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New England Patriots by 8. New England Patriots projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.669 - 0.462
Fantasy Projection Pick: New England Patriots by 7. New England Patriots projected to win by a fantasy score of 79-58
Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better at 2-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3
Week 4 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?
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