Friday, September 26, 2014

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Week 4 (2014)

All systems look to get back to their accurate ways following New York's complete thrashing of the Washington Redskins on Thursday Night as the full slate of Week 4 games get underway. Can Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula and the Fantasy Projections formula exceed the 70% accuracy mark two weeks in a row? They will have to be about perfect on Sunday's games in order to do so after all systems started the week 0-1.


Sunday Game Predictions:

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 9
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 2. Packers by 1.5, Over/Under 50
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Chicago Bears by 13. Chicago Bears projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.611 - 0.289
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Chicago Bears by 6. Chicago Bears projected to win by a fantasy score of 87-71
     Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. Bears better at 2-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 12
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 2
     Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 8. Colts by 7.5, Over/Under 46
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 15. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.615 - 0.246
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 4. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a fantasy score of 75-65
     Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Both teams at 1-2, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 4
     Vegas Lines Pick: Houston Texans by 3. Texans by 3, Over/Under 40.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Houston Texans by 2. Houston Texans projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.642 - 0.603
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Buffalo Bills by 4. Buffalo Bills projected to win by a fantasy score of 66-56
     Best Record Wins Pick: Houston Texans by 3. Both teams at 2-1, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Houston Texans by 3

Detroit Lions at New York Jets
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 9
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New York Jets by 6
     Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 2. Lions by 1.5, Over/Under 45
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Detroit Lions by 10. Detroit Lions projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.673 - 0.412
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Detroit Lions by 8. Detroit Lions projected to win by a fantasy score of 74-51
     Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 2-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 15
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 23
     Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 7. Steelers by 7, Over/Under 45
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 15. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.508 - 0.145
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 12. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a fantasy score of 86-51
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers better at 2-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3

Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Oakland Raiders by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Miami Dolphins by 4. Dolphins by 4, Over/Under 41
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Miami Dolphins by 4. Miami Dolphins projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.300 - 0.208
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Miami Dolphins by 4. Miami Dolphins projected to win by a fantasy score of 69-58
     Best Record Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3. Dolphins better at 1-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: Oakland Raiders by 3

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Ravens by 3, Over/Under 40.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 4. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.651 - 0.549
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Carolina Panthers by 2. Carolina Panthers projected to win by a fantasy score of 65-59
     Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Both teams at 2-1, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Diego Chargers by 27
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Diego Chargers by 17
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Diego Chargers by 13. Chargers by 13, Over/Under 44.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: San Diego Chargers by 24. San Diego Chargers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.692 - 0.086
     Fantasy Projection Pick: San Diego Chargers by 24. San Diego Chargers projected to win by a fantasy score of 110-42
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3. Chargers better at 2-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 8
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 6
     Vegas Lines Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 3. Falcons by 2.5, Over/Under 47
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 11. Atlanta Falcons projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.700 - 0.433
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 7. Atlanta Falcons projected to win by a fantasy score of 87-67
     Best Record Wins Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 3. Falcons better at 2-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 3

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 6
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 9
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 6. 49ers by 5.5, Over/Under 50.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 8. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.648 - 0.445
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 1. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a fantasy score of 80-77
     Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Eagles better at 3-0
     Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints by 3, Over/Under 53
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 1. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.565 - 0.547
     Fantasy Projection Pick: New Orleans Saints by 6. New Orleans Saints projected to win by a fantasy score of 89-72
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 2-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3


Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.



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