Another week of picking at barely 50% accuracy. The NFL is wilder and more unpredictable than it has been in recent years. Man, I love this game!
Sunday Game Results:
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (Actual ~ Atlanta, 16-14)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Atlanta, 27-13. The Falcons have figured it out and the 49ers clearly have not.
Scottie V's Pick: Atlanta, 28-17. Singletary's seat is getting hotter, though this team seems better than their 0-4 record.
Vegas Lines Pick: Atlanta, 26-17. Atlanta by 6.5, Over/Under 43.
Accuscore Pick: Atlanta, 26-10. Atlanta 72% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: San Francisco, 20-10. San Francisco won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Atlanta, 20-17. Atlanta better at 2-1.
Home Team Wins Pick: Atlanta, 20-17
San Francisco shows some fire on the road for a change, but still falls to a horrible 0-4. Adding insult to injury, the 49ers had the game won until Falcon Roddy White stripped Nate Clements of the ball as he tried to return an interception for a touchdown. Given one last second-chance gasp, Atlanta, still recovering from a hard-fought victory in New Orleans a week ago, drives the length of the field to win on a last second field goal.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (Actual ~ New York, 38-14)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: New York Jets, 27-20. The Jets go for three straight division wins and the Bills will have no luck stopping them.
Scottie V's Pick: New York, 23-6. The Jets are hitting their stride, but they are still jerks.
Vegas Lines Pick: New York, 23-16. New York by 5.5, Over/Under 37.
Accuscore Pick: New York, 26-10. New York 72% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Buffalo, 17-13. Buffalo won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New York, 20-17. New York better at 2-1.
Home Team Wins Pick: Buffalo, 20-17
No surprises here as the Jets destroy the Bills for their third straight division win. They will be locked in a tie for first place with the winner of the New England-Miami contest on Monday night. The Bills stumble to 0-4 and whatever fire they showed last week against the Patriots was quickly snuffed out by the Sanchize and the rejuvenated running of LaDainian Tomlinson. Interesting note - Ryan Fitzpatrick led the Bills in both passing yards (128) and rushing yards (74). I wonder how many times that has happened in NFL history?
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (Actual ~ Cleveland, 23-20)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Cincinnati, 20-13. Cincinnati plays ball control and keeps their strong defense rested so they can bottle up Hillis and knock Cleveland down to 0-4.
Scottie V's Pick: Cleveland, 17-16. The Browns are playing with pride and Cincy still has work to do.
Vegas Lines Pick: Cincinnati, 21-17. Cincinnati by 3, Over/Under 37.
Accuscore Pick: Cincinnati, 20-17. Cincinnati 55% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Cincinnati, 20-16. Cincinnati won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Cincinnati, 20-17. Cincinnati better at 2-1.
Home Team Wins Pick: Cleveland, 20-17
Cincinnati fails again in Cleveland and the Browns extend their win streak to one single game. Most systems have Cincinnati's 20 points scored nailed perfectly, although none of these perfect picks for Cincinnati had the Browns scoring more points. Scottie V comes away with the sole correct pick of the non-blind systems. Terrell Owens breaks out with a huge day for 222 yards receiving, but its still not enough to overcome the Bengals ill-timed turnovers.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (Actual ~ Green Bay, 28-26)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Green Bay, 34-13. The Packers are angry at themselves for losing to Chicago and will take their frustrations out on the Lions.
Scottie V's Pick: Green Bay, 38-10. The Pack bounces back with a vengeance after a disappointing loss in Chi-town.
Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay, 31-16. Green Bay by 14, Over/Under 46.
Accuscore Pick: Green Bay, 33-6. Green Bay 89% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Green Bay, 31-10. Green Bay won all 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay, 20-17. Green Bay better at 2-1.
Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay, 20-17
The Packers avoid a huge scare at home as they manage to hold off the plucky Lions by a mere two points. Detroit continues to show signs of improvement, but also continues to make just enough mistakes to keep themselves out of the win column.
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (Actual ~ Denver, 26-20)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Tennessee, 27-21. The Titans show the Broncos their running game is better than Denver's passing game.
Scottie V's Pick: Tennessee, 23-21. The Vince and Chris show overwhelms the Broncs in the end.
Vegas Lines Pick: Tennessee, 26-17. Tennessee by 6.5, Over/Under 43.
Accuscore Pick: Tennessee, 24-13. Tennessee 65% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Tennessee, 27-20. Tennessee won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Tennessee, 20-17. Tennessee better at 2-1.
Home Team Wins Pick: Tennessee, 20-17
What happened to the best running back in football? Denver, by no means the best defense in football, shuts down Chris Johnson and forces the Titans offense to keep pace with Denver's passing game. No shocker that Kyle Orten is a better passer than Vince Young. The Titans drop a winnable game at home. Denver picks up a half-game on the division leading Chiefs out in the wild, wild AFC west. Interesting note - Kyle Orten led the Broncos in both passing yards (341) and rushing yards (11). I wonder how many times that has happened in NFL history?
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (Actual ~ St. Louis, 20-3)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Seattle, 21-10. Without Steven Jackson at 100%, the Seahwaks can focus their attention on rookie Bradford. He might be a big-time quarterback some day, but today will not be the day.
Scottie V's Pick: Seattle, 27-17. A banged up Steven Jackson spells doom for the Rams.
Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle, 23-21. Seattle by 1, Over/Under 40.5.
Accuscore Pick: Seattle, 17-16. Seattle 51% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: St. Louis, 21-17. St. Louis won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle, 20-17. Seattle better at 2-1.
Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis, 20-17
Truth be told here, I have no idea what Scottie V was thinking with this pick, but he must have figured something out because once again he is the only non-blind system to get this game correct. He must think he is sooo smart, but the jokes on him, because the world will end soon now that St. Louis has strung together two consecutive wins. If they win three straight, grab the wife and kids and run for the hills!
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (Actual ~ New Orleans, 16-14)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: New Orleans, 24-20. This game scares me for some reason. New Orleans is struggling with their identity a bit and Carolina always plays them tough, but in the end the Saints walk away with the win.
Scottie V's Pick: New Orleans, 38-13. Not enough firepower for the Rookie-led Panthers to hang with the defending champs.
Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans, 30-14. New Orleans by 13.5, Over/Under 44.
Accuscore Pick: New Orleans, 30-6. New Orleans 86% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: New Orleans, 24-19. New Orleans won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans, 20-17. New Orleans better at 2-1.
Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans, 20-17
I told you this game scared me - and there is nothing scarier than needing three field goals from a 46-year-old kicker picked up off the street to beat a team that has yet to win a game all season. New Orleans wins this division trap game at home, but in so doing creates a lot more questions than the answers they were hoping to find. With Atlanta looking strong, New Orleans can't afford to barely win mismatched contests like this if they hope to repeat as division champions. Vegas Lines pick had the Panthers score perfect, but expected far more out of the Saints.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (Actual ~ Baltimore, 17-14)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Pittsburgh, 13-7. A defensive touchdown means the difference between the Steelers starting 4-0 instead of 3-1. Baltimore's offense has struggled all year and playing Pittsburgh will not suddenly cure them of their woes.
Scottie V's Pick: Pittsburgh, 24-17. Fourth-string QB notwithstanding, the Steelers are on a roll and finish the Ben-less era 4-0.
Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh, 19-17. Pittsburgh by 1.5, Over/Under 34.5.
Accuscore Pick: Pittsburgh, 17-16. Pittsburgh 51% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Baltimore, 20-13. Baltimore won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17. Pittsburgh better at 3-0.
Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17
Only What if Sports correctly picks the Steelers magical, Roethlisberger-less run to come to a sudden stop with a loss against the Ravens. Baltimore makes the most of playing a game against the Steelers without their star QB and takes a big step forward in the division. Scottie V and Vegas Lines have the Ravens score perfect, but the Steelers let them down only managing to get 14 points.
Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (Actual ~ Houston, 31-24)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Houston, 23-13. Licking their wounds from last week, the Texans knock off the Raiders in Oakland.
Scottie V's Pick: Houston, 34-17. Al Davis, now thoroughly confused, wonders, "What happened to the Oilers?" He eases his mind by listening to some Wham!
Vegas Lines Pick: Houston, 24-20. Houston by 3, Over/Under 43.
Accuscore Pick: Houston, 24-14. Houston 64% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Houston, 31-16. Houston won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Houston, 20-17. Houston better at 2-1.
Home Team Wins Pick: Oakland, 20-17
Arian Foster started out the game on Coach Kubiak's bad side because he missed a team meeting and was late for another one. Can you imagine how outstanding his fantasy numbers would have been had he played the entire game instead of sitting the first half out in Kubiak's doghouse? Oakland loses, but again shows signs of improvement. Gradkowski is making the most of his opportunity and will win a game soon.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (Actual ~ Jacksonville, 31-28)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Indianapolis, 35-24. Manning puts on another show in front of 40 screaming fans. Jaguars make a late run, but by then only the faithful dozen fans who lingered into the fourth quarter will see anything to be excited about.
Scottie V's Pick: Indianapolis, 28-14. Peyton Manning is good.
Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis, 28-20. Indianapolis by 7, Over/Under 46.
Accuscore Pick: Indianapolis, 24-10. Indianapolis 70% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Indianapolis, 23-17. Indianapolis won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis, 20-17. Indianapolis better at 2-1.
Home Team Wins Pick: Jacksonville, 20-17
Scobee nails a 59-yard field goal at the end of regulation to ruin another of Manning's great comebacks. The superstar quarterback leads the Colts back with a late fourth quarter drive only to watch his defense give up enough ground to the Jaguars to allow Scobee his miracle kick opportunity. With nothing to lose, the Jaguars finally win a game before two dozen rocking fans and even their record at 2-2. The Colts also fall to a surprising 2-2. Now ain't that something!
Arizona Cardinals at San Diego Chargers (Actual ~ San Diego, 41-10)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: San Diego, 27-16. The Chargers can and will put up points at home, plus they don't make mental errors while playing in Southern California until January.
Scottie V's Pick: San Diego, 30-17. SD wins the turnover battle and the game.
Vegas Lines Pick: San Diego, 30-17. San Diego by 8, Over/Under 45.5.
Accuscore Pick: San Diego, 30-7. San Diego 80% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: San Diego, 28-17. San Diego won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona, 20-17. Arizona better at 2-1.
Home Team Wins Pick: San Diego, 20-17
I told you San Diego wouldn't have the breakdowns at home this early in the season. Only blindly picking the team with the better record would have been a mistake in this complete mismatch. The Cardinals fall back to .500, but are far worse than their record suggests.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (Actual ~ Washington, 17-12)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Philadelphia, 27-24. Of course the Philly fans will boo McNabb. They booed him when he played for the Eagles, why wouldn't they boo him when he takes the field in a Redskins uniform?
Scottie V's Pick: Philadelphia, 24-14. A tense game with the return of Donovan... Vick makes the big plays to seal the game.
Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia, 26-17. Philadelphia by 6, Over/Under 42.5.
Accuscore Pick: Philadelphia, 28-9. Philadelphia 77% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Philadelphia, 20-10. Philadelphia won all 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia, 20-17. Philadelphia better at 2-1.
Home Team Wins Pick: Philadelphia, 20-17
The Redskins hit first, hit hard, and stay strong in the end to clip the Eagles' wings. As the injuries took their toll on Philadelphia and Andy Reid continued his streak of clock-management brilliance, Donovan McNabb makes the most of his homecoming and leads Washington to a solid victory. The NFC East is now more jumbled than ever, with no single team able to assert their dominance so far this season.
Chicago Bears at New York Giants (Actual ~ New York, 17-3)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Chicago, 24-13. The Bears are suddenly cocky after emerging unscathed from the first three weeks of play. The Giants are playing undisciplined, careless football, which doesn't quite work with Coughlin's demeanor.
Scottie V's Pick: New York, 23-17. Eli exposes the Bears who fall from the ranks of the unbeaten.
Vegas Lines Pick: New York, 26-20. New York by 4, Over/Under 44.
Accuscore Pick: New York, 21-16. New York 58% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: New York, 21-17. New York won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago, 20-17. Chicago better at 3-0.
Home Team Wins Pick: New York, 20-17
Sack me once, shame on you. Sack me 10 times, shame on me. The Bears look about as bad as you can look as a 3-0 team trying to improve to 4-0. Despite their victory, the Giants don't look much better offensively, but their defense plays absolutely lights out. Cutler throws for almost nothing behind the sieve of an offensive line and is knocked out the game. Collins comes in and meets the same fate. Chicago's third-string, emergency quarterback? Caleb Hanie... Bet you didn't know that.
Teams on a bye this week -
Dallas Cowboys - Gains a bit of ground in the standings after Washington knocks off Philadelphia. At 1-2 they are still very much alive in the NFC East.
Minnesota Vikings - Packers win and the Bears get demolished in New York. Vikings still in the race, but need to win out of the bye to have a strong chance at competing for the division lead.
Kansas City Chiefs - Maintains their lead over the rest of the AFC West teams, but San Diego gets closer with their crushing victory over Arizona.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Lost ground to both the Dirty Birds and the Saints, both victorious on last-second field goals.
Week 4 Prediction scoreboard through Sunday night...
Scottie V's: 8-5 (season overall: 36-25)
Home Team Wins Pick: 8-5 (season overall: 36-25) *1 Perfect Pick
Vegas Picks: 7-6 (season overall: 35-26)
Accuscore: 7-6 (season overall: 35-26)
What If Sports: 7-6 (season overall: 32-29)
Creative Misfortune: 6-7 (season overall: 30-31)
Best Record Wins Pick: 5-8 (season overall: 33-28) *1 Perfect Pick
Check back tomorrow for the prediction roundup of the Monday Night Football game, the final prediction system standings and the Week 4 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results.
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