Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Week 6 - Roundup of Creative Misfortune

Finally, some normalcy in the NFL. The 70% accuracy mark was hit by five prediction systems and four separate systems had one perfect pick this week.

See below to find out which games were predicted perfectly and how all the systems compared to each other on a game-by-game basis.


Sunday Game Results:

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (Actual ~ Seattle, 23-20
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Seattle, 23-16. The Seahawks have had two weeks to prepare and Chicago is lucky to only have one loss after last week's performance
     Scottie V's Pick: Seattle, 23-16. The Seahawks get their act together on the road.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Chicago, 23-16. Chicago by 6.5, Over/Under 37.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Chicago, 27-9. Chicago 75% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Seattle, 23-14Seattle won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago, 20-17Chicago better at 4-1.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago, 20-17

     Seattle comes out of the bye week swinging and knocks the stumbling Bears down once again. Chicago looks more and more like a phantom winning team after being destroyed by the Giants and Seahawks in recent weeks. What If Sports, Scottie V and Creative Misfortune all picked the Seahawks in an upset and even had their score perfect, unfortunately all three systems expected less from the Bears.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (Actual ~ New England, 23-20 (OT))
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: New England, 23-20. In their first game without Moss, the Patriots do what they did before he arrived in town - win.
     Scottie V's Pick: New England, 23-17. The Pats prove that they can do it without the Moss-man.
     Vegas Lines Pick: New England, 24-20. New England by 2.5, Over/Under 45.
     Accuscore Pick: New England, 17-14. New England 52% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Baltimore, 21-16Baltimore won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore, 20-17Baltimore better at 4-1.
     Home Team Wins Pick: New England, 20-17

     New England's fourth quarter comeback and dramatic overtime victory results in a perfect pick for Creative Misfortune, the first of the year for me. In a battle of Creative Elite teams, New England emerges the better team and keeps pace with the division leading New York Jets. Only What If Sports and blindly picking the team with the best record missed this game.


Detroit Lions at New York Giants (Actual ~ New York, 28-20)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: New York, 34-21. If Houston's offense couldn't handle the Giants while playing at home, there is no chance the Lions will be able to on the road.
     Scottie V's Pick: New York, 30-20. The Lions are unable to ride last week's momentum into another win.
     Vegas Lines Pick: New York, 28-16. New York by 10.5, Over/Under 44.
     Accuscore Pick: New York, 28-9. New York 77% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: New York, 23-10New York won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: New York, 20-17New York better at 3-2.
     Home Team Wins Pick: New York, 20-17

     The Giants continue to roll on offense and their defense plays solid enough to hand Detroit their 24th consecutive road loss. All systems picked the game correctly with both Vegas Lines and Accuscore getting New York's score perfect. Scottie V had Detroit's score perfect, but expected a safety more from the Giants.


Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (Actual ~ Philadelphia, 31-17)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Atlanta, 21-17. The Dirty Birds have been playing strong defense of late and will be able to handle the Eagles.
     Scottie V's Pick: Philadelphia, 27-24. Kolb outduels Matt Ryan at home.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia, 23-20. Philadelphia by 2.5, Over/Under 43.
     Accuscore Pick: Philadelphia, 23-16. Philadelphia 61% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Philadelphia, 24-20Philadelphia won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Atlanta, 20-17Atlanta better at 4-1.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Philadelphia, 20-17

     Kevin Kolb has made Coach Reid's decision on his starting quarterback even more difficult after an outstanding performance against Atlanta's top defense. The Eagles, despite losing Jackson for at least a week, keep pace with the New York Giants and further separated themselves from the stumbling Redskins and Cowboys. Only Creative Misfortune and blindly picking the team with the Best Record missed this one.


Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Actual ~ Pittsburgh 28-10)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Pittsburgh, 28-9. With or without Big Ben in the lineup, the Steelers win this division game.
     Scottie V's Pick: Pittsburgh, 34-6. Ben plays solid in first game back, but most of the damage is done by Mendenhall and the defense.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh, 27-10. Pittsburgh by 13.5, Over/Under 37.
     Accuscore Pick: Pittsburgh, 34-6. Pittsburgh 91% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-14Pittsburgh won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17Pittsburgh better at 3-1.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17

     In a hard-hitting, division game, Pittsburgh emerges the victor in Big Ben's first game back. No real surprises here as all systems pick this game correctly. Creative Misfortune and Vegas Lines both nearly pick this game perfect, with Creative Misfortune just missing by one point on Cleveland's side and Vegas Lines missing by one point on Pittsburgh's side.


Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (Actual ~ Miami, 23-20 (OT))
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Green Bay, 21-20. Injuries continue to ravage the Packers, but they will play strong enough at home to eek out a close win over the Dolphins.
     Scottie V's Pick: Green Bay, 27-13. The Pack gets a defensive touchdown to help out the woozy-headed Rodgers.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay, 26-20. Green Bay by 4, Over/Under 46.
     Accuscore Pick: Green Bay, 21-16. Green Bay 59% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Miami, 20-17Miami won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay, 20-17Green Bay better at 3-2.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay, 20-17

     Miami surprises nearly everybody by upsetting the struggling Packers at home. Only What If Sports correctly gets the winner of this troubling game for Green Bay fans. The Home Team and Best Record systems each predicted Green Bay's score perfectly.


San Diego Chargers at St. Louis Rams (Actual ~ St. Louis, 20-17)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: San Diego, 31-13. So far this year the Chargers have rebounded after a tough loss with a resounding victory. The trend continues this week against the Rams, even on the road.
     Scottie V's Pick: San Diego, 28-9. The Rams are sad, even at home.
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Diego, 28-17. SanDiego by 8, Over/Under 45.
     Accuscore Pick: San Diego, 28-7. San Diego 79% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: San Diego, 28-16. San Diego won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: St. Louis, 20-17Both teams at 2-3, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis, 20-17

     Are you kidding, San Diego? Another terrible road loss by a preseason Super Bowl favorite has fans around the country wondering what the heck is going on. Even the most delusional St. Louis fans were surprised by this result just one week after the Rams were pasted by the Detroit Lions. The Detroit Lions! Only blindly picking the Home Team or the team with the best record (both perfect picks, by the way) would have been correct for this contest.


New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Actual ~ New Orleans, 31-6)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: New Orleans, 24-20. The Saints will right the ship just enough to get past a known division rival, but won't do so in a way that shows everybody they are back to their championship  form.
     Scottie V's Pick: New Orleans, 20-13. Tampa keeps it low-scoring, but don't have enough firepower.
     Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans, 24-19. New Orleans by 4, Over/Under 43.
     Accuscore Pick: New Orleans, 24-13. New Orleans 66% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: New Orleans, 24-17New Orleans won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Tampa Bay, 20-17Tampa Bay better at 3-1.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Tampa Bay, 20-17

    The Saints get back to their championship form by exploiting the youth of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in South Florida. All non-blind systems pick this game correctly, but no system expected the offensive explosion by the Saints against their division rival.


Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (Actual ~ Houston, 35-31
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Houston, 17-10. The Texans, stung by two straight home losses, will do just enough against the Chiefs to end their losing streak.
     Scottie V's Pick: Kansas City, 24-16. KC bounces back after tough loss in Indy to show they are for real.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Houston, 26-20. Houston by 4, Over/Under 45.
     Accuscore Pick: Houston, 24-14. Houston 64% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Houston, 28-17Houston won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City, 20-17Kansas City better at 3-1.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Houston, 20-17

     Houston breaks the home losing streak, but not until late in the fourth quarter when they finally take the lead away from the plucky Chiefs. Kansas City shows they are a force to be reckoned with this season, despite two straight losses against the Texans and Colts. With San Diego, Oakland and Denver falling over the weekend, there is no reason to believe Kansas City can't steal the AFC West.


Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers (Actual ~ San Francisco, 17-9)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: San Francisco, 24-14. The 49ers can't possibly be 0-6, can they? Can they!?
     Scottie V's Pick: San Francisco, 23-13. Singletary's gang finally gets it done against their Bay-area rivals.
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco, 24-17. San Francisco by 6, Over/Under 41.
     Accuscore Pick: San Francisco, 21-16. SanFrancisco 58% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: San Francisco, 21-13. San Francisco 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Oakland, 20-17Oakland better at 2-3.
     Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco, 20-17

     The 49ers finally get off the schneid with a decent, if uninspiring, home victory over the Oakland Raiders. Only picking the team with the better record ended up being the wrong answer.


New York Jets at Denver Broncos (Actual ~ New York, 24-20)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: New York, 31-21. The Jets have dominated opponents of late and a trip to Colorado shouldn't slow them down.
     Scottie V's Pick: New York, 17-14. Jets' D is too much for the Broncs.
     Vegas Lines Pick: New York, 23-19. New York by 3, Over/Under 41.
     Accuscore Pick: New York, 23-14. New York 62% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: New York, 26-14New York won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: New York, 20-17New York better at 4-1.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Denver, 20-17

     The Jets continue to leave very little doubts in people's minds that they can challenge for the Super Bowl title come February. Five straight victories keep them flying high and send the Broncos stumbling like all other teams in the AFC West. Nearly all systems picked this contest correctly.


Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (Actual ~ Minnesota, 24-21)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Dallas, 27-23. The Cowboys have proven they can play better in desperate, must-win regular season playoff games than the Vikings. Dallas will also be motivated to revenge last season's terrible playoff loss in Minnesota and the drama surrounding Favre will only make this game more difficult for the Vikings.
     Scottie V's Pick: Minnesota, 27-20. The Vikings get a much-needed victory...  Wade's hot seat just got hotter.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Minnesota, 24-21. Minnesota by 1.5, Over/Under 45.
     Accuscore Pick: Minnesota, 17-14. Minnesota 52% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Minnesota, 17-14Minnesota won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Minnesota, 20-17Both teams at 1-3, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Minnesota, 20-17

     The Cowboys just don't learn from their mistakes and stupid celebration penalties two weeks in a row show Dallas is more a collection of talented individuals than a team able to win the tough games. Vegas Lines picks this game perfect and only Creative Misfortune, still blinded by an optimistic belief in Dallas being able to turn the ship around, gets this pick wrong.

Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins (Actual ~ Indianapolis, 27-24)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Indianapolis, 17-10. The Colts win a close road game.
     Scottie V's Pick: Indianapolis, 27-17. Peyton dissects the 'Skins.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis, 24-20. Indianapolis by 3, Over/Under 44.
     Accuscore Pick: Indianapolis, 23-16. Indianapolis 61% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Washington, 26-24Washington won 2 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Washington, 20-17Both teams at 3-2, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Washington, 20-17

     Peyton Manning once again leads the Colts to victory over a tough defense by throwing multiple touchdown passes. Indianapolis stays in a three-way tie for first place in the AFC South and goes confidently into their bye week. Washington falls further behind the Eagles and the Giants in the NFC East.


Monday Game Score Prediction:

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (Actual ~ Tennessee, 30-3)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Tennessee, 20-14. Both teams are playing for first place in the AFC South, but somehow Tennessee's win over Dallas seems far more impressive than Jacksonville's recent win over the Bills.
     Scottie V's Pick: Tennessee, 24-13Chris Johnson and VY are too much for the Jags.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Tennessee, 26-21. Tennessee by 3, Over/Under 45.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Jacksonville, 14-13. Both teams 50% win confidence, advantage home.
     What If Sports Pick: Tennessee, 23-14Tennessee won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Jacksonville, 20-17Both teams at 3-2, advantage home..
     Home Team Wins Pick: Jacksonville, 20-17

    One of these teams wouldn't be in the logjam at the top of the AFC South once the game ended and the Jaguars become the odd-man out of the four team race for first. Tennessee wins big despite losing Vince Young early with a sprained knee.

Teams on a bye this week -
     Buffalo Bills - Lost ground to all AFC East teams
    
     Cincinnati Bengals - Lost a bit of ground to the Steelers, but gained some separation from the bottom dwelling Browns.

     Arizona Cardinals - All teams in the NFC West won, leaving Arizona little margin for error once their season resumes.
 
     Carolina Panthers - Only the Saints won from their division, but unless the other teams fall completely flat on their faces, Carolina has little to play for this year, except for more experience next year.


    All systems except the blind pick systems broke the magical 70% accuracy mark, with Scottie V, Vegas Picks and What If Sports lead the way by missing on only three games.

Week 6 Final Prediction Scoreboard...
     Scottie V's: 11-3 (season overall: 53-37)
     Vegas Picks: 11-3 (season overall: 53-37) *1 Perfect Pick    
     What If Sports: 11-3 (season overall: 49-41)
     Accuscore: 10-4 (season overall: 53-37)
     Creative Misfortune: 10-4 (season overall: 46-44) *1 Perfect Pick
     Home Team Wins Pick: 8-6 (season overall: 51-39) *2 Perfect Picks
     Best Record Wins Pick: 5-9 (season overall: 46-44) *2 Perfect Picks
    
         
Check back later today for the Week 6 results of the Creative Misfortune feature "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..."

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