Another week of total chaos and absolute devastation for almost any system trying to pick NFL winners. I thought the NFL couldn't get any more turned upside down than it was after week 4. Wow!
Sunday Game Score Predictions:
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (Actual ~ Jacksonville, 36-26)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Jacksonville, 20-13. Riding high from an emotional victory over Indianapolis, Jacksonville's confidence will be a dangerous thing for the Bills.
Scottie V's Pick: Jacksonville, 28-10. The Jags are the silent killer.
Vegas Lines Pick: Buffalo, 21-20. Picke Em! Over/Under 41.
Accuscore Pick: Jacksonville, 21-16. Jacksonville 58% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Buffalo, 20-14. Buffalo won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Jacksonville, 20-17. Jacksonville better at 2-2.
Home Team Wins Pick: Buffalo, 20-17
The Jaguars roll into to Buffalo and stomp all over the Bills in the second half, but only after surviving their own early mistakes. Buffalo falls to 0-5 and is already looking to next year. Jacksonville, on the other hand, suddenly finds themselves in a four-way tie for first in the AFC South.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (Actual ~ Tampa Bay, 24-21)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Cincinnati, 24-17. The Bucs have had time to prepare, but Cincinnati is the stronger team, both on offense and on defense.
Scottie V's Pick: Cincinnati, 17-13. Cincy gets a needed win at home.
Vegas Lines Pick: Cincinnati, 23-16. Cincinnati by 6.5, Over/Under 38.
Accuscore Pick: Cincinnati, 28-9. Cincinnati 77% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Cincinnati, 27-17. Cincinnati won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Tampa Bay, 20-17. Tampa Bay better at 3-1.
Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati, 20-17
The upstart Bucs catch the Bengals at home, proving there might be something to their 3-1 record after all. Cincinnati continues to make the mental errors and fails to win a game at home against a younger, less experienced opponent. Only picking the team with the Best Record ends up being the right answer in this contest.
Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns (Actual ~ Atlanta, 20-10)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Atlanta, 23-13. Cleveland only has a chance if their special teams do something spectacular.
Scottie V's Pick: Cleveland, 20-14. The Browns are starting to play with pride.
Vegas Lines Pick: Atlanta, 23-19. Atlanta by 3, Over/Under 40.5.
Accuscore Pick: Atlanta, 21-16. Atlanta 58% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Atlanta, 20-14. Atlanta won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Atlanta, 20-17. Atlanta better at 3-1.
Home Team Wins Pick: Cleveland, 20-17
The Dirty Birds pick up their fourth straight win with strong defensive play and knock off the struggling Browns at home. What If Sports and Best Record systems score perfect predicted scores for Atlanta, but both expected a bit more from Cleveland. You'd think they would know better.
St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (Actual ~ Detroit, 44-6)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: St. Louis, 28-24. Bradford is the real deal and defenses can no longer key on Jackson.
Scottie V's Pick: Detroit, 23-14. The loveable and deserving Lions get a big win.
Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit, 24-20. Detroit by 3, Over/Under 42.5.
Accuscore Pick: Detroit, 17-16. Detroit 51% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: St. Louis, 20-10. St. Louis won all 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: St. Louis, 20-17. St. Louis better at 2-2.
Home Team Wins Pick: Detroit, 20-17
The Lions win for the third time in their last 37 games. If I had to sum up my reaction when I saw this final score in one word - because, seriously, who would have wanted to watch this game anyway? - that word would be: I couldn't freakin' believe it!
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (Actual ~ Indianapolis, 19-9)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Indianapolis, 35-28. Indianapolis wins at home in a shoot-out, but Kansas City shows they are not going away anytime soon.
Scottie V's Pick: Indianapolis, 27-17. Leave it to Peyton Manning to bring a team (in this case, the Chiefs) back down to earth.
Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis, 28-20. Indianapolis by 7.5, Over/Under 45.5.
Accuscore Pick: Indianapolis, 27-10. Indianapolis 73% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Indianapolis, 24-23. Indianapolis won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City, 20-17. Kansas City better at 3-0.
Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis, 20-17
Only the Best Record system fails to get this field-goal fest picked correctly. 7 field goals crossed through the uprights and the only touchdown of the game ended up being an Indianapolis rushing touchdown by Mike Hart. Though the '72 Dolphins may be popping champagne corks tonight, I can tell you from experience, fantasy teams throughout the land are crying in their beers over the stats coming out of this matchup.
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (Actual ~ Washington, 16-13, OT)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Green Bay, 21-10. The Packers defense keeps McNabb and the struggling Washington offense in check and Rodgers seals the victory with a few TD passes.
Scottie V's Pick: Green Bay, 24-20. Rodgers and company have too many weapons to keep in check.
Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay, 24-21. Green Bay by 2.5, Over/Under 44.
Accuscore Pick: Green Bay, 23-14. Green Bay 62% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Washington, 23-21. Washington won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay, 20-17. Green Bay better at 3-1.
Home Team Wins Pick: Washington, 20-17
The Packers may have all the offensive weapons in the world and a stacked defense, but mental mistakes are absolutely wrecking havoc with their quest for a Super Bowl. The Redskins elevate their record to a hard-fought 3-2 and now are in a three-way tie for first place in the NFC East.
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (Actual ~ Chicago, 23-6)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Carolina, 17-13. The Bears took a beating last week and Carolina gained some confidence by taking the defending champions to the brink.
Scottie V's Pick: Carolina, 20-13. Jay Cutler is a mess.
Vegas Lines Pick: Chicago, 20-17. Chicago by 2.5, Over/Under 35.5.
Accuscore Pick: Chicago, 17-16. Chicago 51% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Chicago, 26-16. Chicago won all 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago, 20-17. Chicago better at 3-1.
Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina, 20-17
The Chicago Bears win the after passing for only 29 net yards. Todd Collins connects on 10 passes - 6 to his own players and 4 to the Carolina defenders, yet the Bears still won by 17 points. How bad is this Panthers team?
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (Actual ~ Baltimore, 31-17)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Baltimore, 27-24. The Ravens will keep the Broncos passing attack out of the end zone. Orten may throw for 400, but it will be in a losing effort.
Scottie V's Pick: Baltimore, 23-17. C'mon Broncos! But I don't see it happening.
Vegas Lines Pick: Baltimore, 24-16. Baltimore by 7, Over/Under 38.5.
Accuscore Pick: Baltimore, 27-10. Baltimore 74% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Denver, 23-13. Denver won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore, 20-17. Baltimore better at 3-1.
Home Team Wins Pick: Baltimore, 20-17
The Ravens dominate at home and only a couple garbage-time touchdowns by the Broncos make this game almost seem close. Scottie V and the blind picks get Denver's number perfect, but Baltimore overachieves, ruining their chances for a perfect pick.
New York Giants at Houston Texans (Actual ~ New York, 34-10)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Houston, 31-14. With Arian Foster playing a full game and Andre Johnson back in action, how can Houston lose?
Scottie V's Pick: Houston, 27-21. Coughlin's seat is getting toasty.
Vegas Lines Pick: Houston, 26-21. Houston by 3, Over/Under 47.
Accuscore Pick: Houston, 21-16. Houston 60% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Houston, 28-17. Houston won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Houston, 20-17. Houston better at 3-1.
Home Team Wins Pick: Houston, 20-17
No system came close to getting this game right. The Texans fail on all accounts. The Giants defense has shown the last two weeks just how devastating they can be and now the offense wants to play, too. Scary, scary situation for the other NFC teams. Coughlin has turned this ship around in a hurry.
New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (Actual ~ Arizona, 30-20)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: New Orleans, 34-6. It's never good when you feel you have to start a rookie quarterback against the defending Super Bowl champions, particularly when that champion has struggled of late and is looking for someone to crush as a confidence-building exercise.
Scottie V's Pick: New Orleans, 35-13. Not ideal to break out a new QB against the defending champs... C'mon, Derek, pull it together!!!
Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans, 27-19. New Orleans by 7, Over/Under 44.5.
Accuscore Pick: New Orleans, 27-9. New Orleans 75% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: New Orleans, 27-17. New Orleans won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans, 20-17. New Orleans better at 3-1.
Home Team Wins Pick: Arizona, 20-17
The Saints play like anything but defending champions and Drew Brees has his worst game in a long, long time. Great job by Arizona rookie Max Hall to get the win in his first start. He was by no means perfect, but at the end of the day his team scored the win. Only blindly picking the Home Team gets the pick correct, but blindly picking the Best Record gets the Saints losing score picked perfectly.
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (Actual ~ Oakland, 35-27)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: San Diego, 28-10. While the Chargers have had their difficulties on the road this season, the Raiders are a known entity and the weather will be nice on Sunday.
Scottie V's Pick: San Diego, 34-23. "Just win, baby!" Well, not if you're playing the Chargers... They're pretty good.
Vegas Lines Pick: San Diego, 27-20. San Diego by 6.5, Over/Under 45.
Accuscore Pick: San Diego, 27-9. San Diego 75% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: San Diego, 27-16. San Diego won all 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: San Diego, 20-17. San Diego better at 2-2.
Home Team Wins Pick: Oakland, 20-17
Games like these are why you avoid picking division games if you can avoid them. Oakland snaps a 13 game losing streak to the horribly underachieving Chargers. Multiple systems nailed the Chargers score of 27 points, but none of those systems had them giving up more than 20 to this Raiders team. Once again, blindly picking the home teams ends up being the only correct answer.
Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys (Actual ~ Tennessee, 34-27)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Dallas, 27-24. Cowboys regain their momentum after the bye week by defeating a Titans team suddenly unable to find its identity.
Scottie V's Pick: Tennessee, 24-20. C'mon Titans!!!
Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas, 26-17. Dallas by 6.5, Over/Under 41.5.
Accuscore Pick: Dallas, 28-10. Dallas 76% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Dallas, 21-17. Dallas won 2 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Tennessee, 20-17. Tennessee better at 2-2.
Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas, 20-17
We've seen it time and time again. A team, in this case Dallas, overcomes a big fourth quarter deficit to tie the game late only to give up a huge return on the ensuing kick-off, setting up their opponent for a great chance to steal the game back. Is tying the game in these situations so emotionally draining teams can't possibly be expected to tackle on special teams? The Titans take back what they shouldn't have lost and dance their way out of Dallas into a four-way tie for first place in the AFC South. The Cowboys now face a must-win game in Minnesota next week. After stumbling against Tennessee, Dallas sits two games back of the Eagles, Redskins and Giants in the win column. Home field advantage in the Super Bowl is pure fantasy at this point.
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (Actual ~ Philadelphia, 27-24)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: San Francisco, 16-10. The Eagles were beat up pretty badly last week and the 49ers, as bad as they have played, are not an 0-5 team.
Scottie V's Pick: San Francisco, 17-16. Mike Singletary gives Kevin Kolb the "Singletary eyes"... Kolb proceeds to pee his pants... And throw 2 interceptions.
Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco, 21-17. San Francisco by 3, Over/Under 38.
Accuscore Pick: San Francisco, 20-17. San Francisco 54% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Philadelphia, 20-17. Philadelphia won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia, 20-17. Philadelphia better at 2-2.
Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco, 20-17
I was wrong. The 49ers are an 0-5 team. I think you could argue they are the best of the 0-5 teams, but they only have to blame themselves for still being winless. They could easily be 3-2 now if they would stop fumbling the ball in the second half, giving their opponents the opportunity to steal the game away from them or drive the final nail in their coffin. The Eagles don't miss a step with Kolb at quarterback and win a solid game on the road.
Monday Night Game Result:
Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets (Actual ~ New York, 29-20)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: New York, 24-21. Despite all the hoopla surrounding Moss' return to the Vikings and Favre's return to New York, the Jets, who have already weathered their storms this season, will win a close game.
Scottie V's Pick: New York, 31-17. Randy Moss pick up reeks of desperation... Cell phone "wang" picture aside, Brett Favre is really starting to regret his decision.
Vegas Lines Pick: New York, 23-17. New York by 3.5, Over/Under 39.
Accuscore Pick: New York, 21-16. New York 59% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Minnesota, 23-17 (OT). Minnesota and New York were deadlocked after 5 simulations. After a second set of 5 simulations, Minnesota emerged the overtime favorite. In all, Minnesota won 6 of 10 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New York Jets, 20-17. New York better at 3-1.
Home Team Wins Pick: New York, 20-17
The Jets ground the Vikings in lightning delayed game. The Favre to Moss connection debuts under the bright lights and Favre connects with Moss late in the game for his 500th career touchdown pass. While the Jets move into first place alone, Minnesota faces a must-win game against Dallas in week 6.
Teams on a bye this week -
Miami Dolphins - Lost another half game to the New York Jets.
New England Patriots - Fell a half game behind the New York Jets
Pittsburgh Steelers - Fell further behind the Baltimore Ravens, but gained a bit more separation from the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns
Seattle Seahawks - Fell behind the surprising Arizona Cardinals after their upset of the Saints, but stayed a step ahead of the 49ers and Rams.
After another wild week in the NFL, all systems struggled to even hit the 50% accuracy this week. Only picking the team with the Best Record, the worst system last week, achieves the best result this week. Again no system manages to reach the magical 70% mark.
Week 5 Final Prediction Scoreboard...
Best Record Wins Pick: 8-6 (season overall: 41-35) *1 Perfect Pick
Home Team Wins Pick: 7-7 (season overall: 43-33) *1 Perfect Pick
Accuscore: 7-7 (season overall: 43-33)
Scottie V's: 6-8 (season overall: 42-34)
Vegas Picks: 6-8 (season overall: 42-34)
Creative Misfortune: 5-9 (season overall: 36-40)
What If Sports: 5-9 (season overall: 38-38)
Check back later today for the Week 5 results of the Creative Misfortune feature "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..."
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