Monday, September 13, 2010

Week 1 - Roundup of Creative Misfortune - Sunday Games

Sunday Game Score Prediction Results:

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (Actual ~ Miami, 15-10)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Buffalo, 16-14Bills win an ugly game at home.
     Scottie V's Pick: Miami, 23-6. Buffalo be bad.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Miami, 21-17Miami by 3, Over/Under 38.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Miami, 21-17Miami 56% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Miami, 17-13Miami won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Buffalo, 20-17. Both records at 0-0, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Buffalo, 20-17

     It definitely was an ugly game, but Miami manages to win in the end. Vegas avoids another opening weekend push by Buffalo deciding to snap the ball through the end zone for a safety instead of trying to punt. Not 100% certain on the logic there, but then again, this is Buffalo we are talking about. Only I fall for the mystique of the home team winning this game (they won almost all others) as all other non-blind systems get the correct result.
    
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (Actual ~ Chicago, 19-14)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Chicago, 30-17. Out to prove the Lions are still the doormats of the North, Chicago holds onto the ball and runs away with this one
     Scottie V's Pick: Detroit, 27-14. Cutler throws 4 INTs, including a pick-6.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Chicago, 27-20. Chicago by 6.5, Over/Under 44.
     Accuscore Pick: Chicago, 24-10Chicago 70% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Chicago, 23-10Chicago won all 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago, 20-17. Both records at 0-0, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago, 20-17

     Process. Key word for this game. Defining "the process of the catch" costs Detroit a shocking upset of their division rivals and Calvin Johnson fantasy owners 6+ pts. Personal opinion - since I am an NFL ref and everything - the pass was incomplete, because Johnson falling to the ground was part of the process of catching that particular ball. There's that word again. Process. HA! Detroit, rebuilding your football team is a process.


Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (Actual ~ Tennessee, 38-13)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Tennessee, 24-17Both teams pick up where they left off.
     Scottie V's Pick: Tennessee, 27-10. Al Davis inquires, "Who's this Tennessee team? When do we play the Oilers???"
     Vegas Lines Pick: Tennessee, 24-17Tennesee by 6, Over/Under 40.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Tennessee, 24-10Tennessee 68% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Tennessee, 23-20. Tennessee won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Tennessee, 20-17. Both records at 0-0, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Tennessee, 20-17

     Chris Johnson runs wild. Vince Young is solid. The Titans D stuffs the Raiders. Not much else to say. No surprises here.


Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (Actual ~ New England, 38-24)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: New England, 27-16Brady reminds everybody he is worth every penny. 
     Scottie V's Pick: New England, 31-20. Tom Brady returns from his car accident to tear up the un-Tweet-worthy Bengals.
     Vegas Lines Pick: New England, 26-21. New England by 4.5, Over/Under 44.5.
     Accuscore Pick: New England, 20-17. New England 53% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: New England, 23-13. New England won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: New England, 20-17. Both records at 0-0, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: New England, 20-17

     Brady and the Patriots prove why the sum of no-name players without realtity TV shows are better than a disjointed group of me-first athletes. New England coasts to an easy 14-point victory at home.


Carolina Panthers at New York Giants (Actual ~ NY Giants, 31-18)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Carolina, 24-23Upset special. Carolina shocks the Giants and ruins the opening of the New Meadowlands Stadium.
     Scottie V's Pick: Carolina, 20-17. Matt Moore outplays Eli in New York. Tom Coughlin's demeanor changes from furious to livid.
     Vegas Lines Pick: New York, 24-17. New York by 6.5, Over/Under 41.
     Accuscore Pick: New York, 24-13. New York 66% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Carolina, 27-26Carolina won 2 of 5 simulations outright and overall average.
     Best Record Wins Pick: New York, 20-17. Both records at 0-0, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: New York, 20-17

     So much for the upset special pick made by both myself and Scottie V. It sure looked promising with the Panthers up 16-14 at the half, but then the wheels came off. Accuscore proved closest by predicting the biggest victory for New York, but nobody expected them to score as much as they did.


Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (Actual ~ Pittsburgh, 15-9 (OT))
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Pittsburgh, 24-23Pitt's D bends but doesn't break and the running game keeps the Steelers in the game until the very end.
     Scottie V's Pick: Pittsburgh, 23-21. Dennis Dixon plays solidly, but unspectacularly, in leading the Steelers to victory.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17Pittsburgh by 2.5, Over/Under 38.
     Accuscore Pick: Pittsburgh, 17-14. Pittsburgh 52% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Atlanta, 16-13Atlanta won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17. Both records at 0-0, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17

     What if What If Sports had more faith in the Pittsburgh Defense like everybody else? As it is, a predicted close game needs extra time to finish before the Steelers prevail at home with solid defensive play and a breakaway run by Mendenhall to seal the deal. If they start 4-0, could it be said they don't need Roethlisberger?


Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Actual ~ Tampa Bay, 17-14)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Cleveland, 20-17Somebody has to win. A tie would be hoping for too much.
     Scottie V's Pick: Tampa Bay, 17-6. At least the weather will be nice...
     Vegas Lines Pick: Tampa Bay, 21-17. Tampa Bay by 3, Over/Under 37.
     Accuscore Pick: Tampa Bay, 21-17. Tampa Bay 56% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Cleveland, 24-17. Cleveland won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Tampa Bay, 20-17. Both records at 0-0, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Tampa Bay, 20-17

     Somebody had to win and, unfortunately for me, Cleveland did not. Creative Misfortune, Scottie V and What If Sports all had Tampa Bay scoring 17 in this one, but only Scottie had them winning the game with that score. Well, V, we're happy for ya.


Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars (Actual ~ Jacksonville, 24-17)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Jacksonville, 21-20Too bad nobody will see this game.
     Scottie V's Pick: Denver, 24-23. Orten catches fire late to bring the Broncs back from behind.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Jacksonville, 23-20. Jacksonville by 2.5, Over/Under 40.
     Accuscore Pick: Jacksonville, 21-17. Jacksonville 56% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Jacksonville, 21-16. Jacksonville won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Jacksonville, 20-17. Both records at 0-0, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Jacksonville, 20-17

     Beneath the shining brilliance of a lightning storm the Jaguars open their 2010 campaign with a solid victory over the Broncos, much to the chagrin of Scottie V. Accuscore and the blind picks get the losing score correctly, but none of those systems expected Jacksonville to reach 24 points.
    
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (Actual ~ Houston, 34-24)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Indianapolis, 23-20Eventually Houston will win one of these, but not this week.
     Scottie V's Pick: Indianapolis, 38-27. The Texans are closing the gap, but not there yet.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis, 26-23. Indianapolis by 2, Over/Under 47.
     Accuscore Pick: Indianapolis, 23-14. Indianapolis 63% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Indianapolis, 20-17 (OT)Indianapolis barely won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Houston, 20-17. Both records at 0-0, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Houston, 20-17

     That's how you kill a monkey on your back! Texans prove they are ready to beat the Colts here and now. Only blindly picking the home team is successful for this game prediction. And how about Arian Foster? Proud to say I reached to draft him on all three of my fantasy football teams. 231 yards and 3 TDs proves not all my predictions are inaccurate.


San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (Actual ~ Seattle, 31-6)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: San Francisco, 21-16The 49ers begin to assert their dominance over the woeful NFC West.
     Scottie V's Pick: Seattle, 23-14. In spite of Taylor Mays' best efforts to stick his former coach, Seattle prevails.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle, 21-17. Seattle by 3, Over/Under 37.
     Accuscore Pick: San Francisco, 21-16. San Francisco 58% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: San Francisco, 17-14. San Francisco won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle, 20-17. Both records at 0-0, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle, 20-17

     San Francisco, you're an embarrassment to west coast football. How can a team picked by many to roll through the regular season en route to a division championship come out and drop a deuce like this? 6 points against Seattle? Worse, allowing 31 points to Seattle? Pathetic. Just pathetic. Any system that picked this score correctly is just plain crazy and not to be trusted.


Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (Actual ~ Green Bay, 27-20)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Green Bay, 30-27The young gunslinger shows he can win the shoot-outs, too.
     Scottie V's Pick: Green Bay, 38-17. The boo-birds will be out in Philly. Fans drive home to the tune of "Don't Know What You've Got (Til It's Gone)". We miss you, Donovan!
     Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia, 27-23. Philadelphia by 3, Over/Under 47.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Green Bay, 21-16. Green Bay 58% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Philadelphia, 21-20. Philadelphia won 2 of 5 simulations outright, but dominated both for the overall advantage.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia, 20-17. Both records at 0-0, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Philadelphia, 20-17

     Green Bay dominates early with tenacious defense and high-flying offense. Injuries abound in a hard-hitting game, but the Packers manage to hold on for the win in the friendly confines of Philadelphia. Kolb out, Vick in. Philly fans now have some gristle to chew on to get them through the week.


Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (Actual ~ Arizona, 17-13)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Arizona, 26-17Free of Leinert, Cardinals roll over their division foe.
     Scottie V's Pick: Arizona, 20-14. The battle of Beaver alums... Derek Anderson wins round 1.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Arizona, 23-17. Arizona by 4, Over/Under 39.
     Accuscore Pick: Arizona, 23-16. Arizona 61% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Arizona, 20-17. Arizona won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: St. Louis, 20-17. Both records at 0-0, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis, 20-17

     Looks like it will continue to be tough sledding for Arizona without Warner, whether Anderson is the answer or Leinert was. St. Louis shows they can at least fight in their division this year. With San Francisco's week 1 stumble, anybody could win the West this season. St. Louis, you have Steve Jackson and a late 13-10 lead. Could it be possible that having your rookie quarterback throw the ball nearly 60 times prevented you from running out the clock and winning this game? Really makes you think, doesn't it?


Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (Actual ~ Washington, 13-7)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Dallas, 21-17Dallas spoils the home opener for their NFC East rivals.
     Scottie V's Pick: Washington, 27-23. Donovan McNabb is the hero... Announces his nomination for the presidency in 2012.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas, 24-20. Dallas by 3.5, Over/Under 40.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Dallas, 21-16. Dallas 59% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Dallas, 24-16. Dallas won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Washington, 20-17. Both records at 0-0, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Washington, 20-17

     Beyond pathetic first half for the Dallas Cowboys in this one with a stupid lateral play to put the exclamation point on 30 minutes of inept football! That play proves to be the difference in the game. Absolutely unacceptable play calling by a team that has players skilled enough they don't need gimmicks to win. Too many mental mistakes, Dallas. Right Tackle Barron showed last night why he the St. Louis Rams were thankful to let him go. After the 10th holding penalty, you'd think the Cowboys coaching staff would have given him some help before that last colossal mistake cost them the game.
     The Dallas defense looked good, at least, holding Washington to a mere 6 points even after the mistakes made on offense and special teams put them in terrible situations. They have that going for them.


Week 1 Prediction scoreboard through Sunday night...
     Vegas Picks: 11-3 (season overall: 11-3)
     Accuscore: 11-3 (season overall: 11-3)
     Best Record Wins Pick: 11-3 (season overall: 11-3)
     Home Team Wins Pick: 11-3 (season overall: 11-3)
     Scottie V's: 10-4 (season overall: 10-4)
     Creative Misfortune: 8-6 (season overall: 8-6)
     What If Sports: 7-7 (season overall: 7-7)
  
Check back tomorrow for the prediction roundup of the Monday Night Football matchups and the final week 1 prediction systems standings...

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