Monday, September 20, 2010

Week 2 - Roundup of Creative Misfortune - Sunday Games

Week 2 proved a rough week of prognostication for all prediction systems as the NFL drew up some beautifully unpredictable and entertaining games. Results like these are why football is the greatest sport around! 


Sunday Game Prediction Results:

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (Actual ~ Atlanta, 41-7)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Arizona, 17-16. Arizona holds onto the football better and wins with a late TD pass.
     Scottie V's Pick: Arizona, 24-16. Derek Anderson and Larry Fitzgerald connect for two TD's as Larry cracks 100 yards for the day.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Atlanta, 26-17. Atlanta by 6.5, Over/Under 43.
     Accuscore Pick: Atlanta, 26-10. Atlanta 71% win confidence.
     What If Sports Pick: Arizona, 20-16. Arizona won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona, 20-17. Arizona better at 1-0 vs 0-1.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Atlanta, 20-17

     One team came out upset over having lost in week 1. The other came out content to have defeated the Rams a week ago. Not a good showing at all, Arizona. The Dirty Birds win this aerial battle and remind everybody they are still part of the playoff race.     


Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (Actual ~ Cincinnati, 15-10)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Baltimore, 24-17Ravens D shuts down Batman and Robin.
     Scottie V's Pick: Baltimore, 31-17. The cracks in the Bengal armor are starting to show...  Will the locker room start to fray after week 2?
     Vegas Lines Pick: Baltimore, 23-20. Baltimore by 2, Over/Under 39.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Baltimore, 17-16. Baltimore 51% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Baltimore, 30-17. Baltimore won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore, 20-17. Baltimore better at 1-0 vs 0-1.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati, 20-17

     Only picking the home team in this game scored the victory. Five field goals will beat one touchdown every time, but talk about an ugly, defensive game. Baltimore falls to 1-1 despite the defense not having allowed a single touchdown so far this season.


Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns (Actual ~ Kansas City, 16-14)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Cleveland, 14-13. Kansas City won't make the special team plays in this one and falls short in a close game on the road.
     Scottie V's Pick: Kansas City, 27-13. Matt Cassell plays his best game as a Chief.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Cleveland, 21-17. Cleveland by 2, Over/Under 38.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Cleveland, 20-17. Cleveland 55% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Kansas City, 17-16. Kansas City won 2 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City, 20-17. Kansas City better at 1-0 vs 0-1.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Cleveland, 20-17

     What If Sports nearly has this game perfect, predicting a 17-16 finish. Kansas City's young players continue to forget they play in Kansas City and now, after two weeks of action, only the Chiefs remain undefeated in the AFC West.


Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (Actual ~ Chicago, 27-20)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Dallas, 28-17. Dallas needs this more than Chicago and will remember to run the ball against a defense that's lost a step.
     Scottie V's Pick: Dallas, 38-17. The Cowboys regain some mojo against the hapless Bears.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas, 26-17. Dallas by 8, Over/Under 41.
     Accuscore Pick: Dallas, 27-10. Dallas 74% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Dallas, 27-21. Dallas won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago, 20-17. Chicago better at 1-0 vs 0-1.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas, 20-17

    Only blindly taking the team with the best record ends up getting the pick right in this one. Seriously, Dallas? What the heck are you doing? Super Bowl contenders, with the Super Bowl to be held in their own stadium, don't start the season a bad 0-2. Chicago looks strong, improving to 2-0 on the arm of Jay Cutler, making Dallas' self-destructive start that much more horrific.


Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (Actual ~ Philadelphia, 35-32)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Philadelphia, 24-10In a battle of back-up QBs, Vick clearly the superior option.
     Scottie V's Pick: Philadelphia, 23-13. Michael Vick and the Eagles make the Lions look silly on several occasions... But really, most teams have a tendency to do that.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia, 24-17. Philadelphia by 6, Over/Under 41.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Philadelphia, 23-14. Philadelphia 62% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Philadelphia, 16-10. Philadelphia won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit, 20-17. Both records at 0-1, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Detroit, 20-17

     Blind picks finally miss one that all other systems have right. The Lions fought valiantly, came back late and made it interesting, but the Eagles hold on for the slim road victory.

Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers (Actual ~ Green Bay, 34-7)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Green Bay, 34-10. Buffalo will not be able to stop the Packers, particularly in a stadium full of Cheeseheads.
     Scottie V's Pick: Green Bay, 44-9. The Pack continues to look impressive...  The Bills will help you do that.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay, 28-14. Green Bay by 12.5, Over/Under 42.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Green Bay, 27-10. Green Bay 74% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Green Bay, 23-10. Green Bay won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay, 20-17. Green Bay better at 1-0 vs 0-1.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay, 20-17

     Green Bay does exactly what it was supposed to do, but only Creative Misfortune has the near perfect pick (hey, it's one of the few picks that went my way all day). Packers look like solid Super Bowl contenders and roll easily over a hapless Bills team that couldn't even score enough fantasy points to beat the real Green Bay Packers score of 34 points. Terrible, Buffalo. Just terrible.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (Actual ~ Pittsburgh, 19-11)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Tennessee, 17-13. The Titans stuff the Steelers rushing attack and force Pittsburgh to use their passing game. Dixon won't be up to the task in this one.
     Scottie V's Pick: Pittsburgh, 27-20. Rashard Mendenhall outrushes Chris Johnson and Dennis Dixon manages the game.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Tennessee, 23-16. Tennessee by 5, Over/Under 36.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Tennessee, 24-14. Tennessee 64% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Tennessee, 26-17. Tennessee won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Tennessee, 20-17. Both records at 1-0, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Tennessee, 20-17

     Only Scottie V, blinded by his love of the Steelers, gets this pick correctly. Well, we're happy for him. Honestly, haven't the Steelers been in more oddball scoring games than any other team in NFL history? They're 2-0 on the season with 15-9 and 19-11 victories. Gotta hand it to the Steelers. Their games may be awkward, but they win those games more often than not.


Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (Actual ~ Miami, 14-10)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Minnesota, 24-14. The Vikings defense proves far superior to Buffalo's and Miami struggles on the road.
     Scottie V's Pick: Minnesota, 30-10. Brett Favre takes care of the ball and the Vikes win easily.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Minnesota, 23-16. Minnesota by 5.5, Over/Under 39.
     Accuscore Pick: Minnesota, 24-10. Minnesota 70% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Minnesota, 21-17. Minnesota won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Miami, 20-17. Miami better at 1-0 vs 0-1.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Minnesota, 20-17

     Oh, Minnesota. What could have been this year if only Brett Favre had come to training camp on time and your wide receivers had not been hampered by so many injuries? Age has caught up with the great one and youth is costing the team down the field, but Favre's red zone interceptions were ridiculous. The Vikings defense holds the Dolphins to 7 points. The Vikings offense scored 10 points for themselves and 7 points for the Dolphins. Never good, especially at home. Vikings now 0-2 and wondering where, oh where, 2009 went.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (Actual ~ Tampa Bay, 20-7)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Carolina, 17-10. Matt Moore doesn't make the mistakes that cost the Panthers last week against a weaker, more familiar opponent
     Scottie V's Pick: Carolina, 17-14. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart help the Panthers to dominate time of possession, 2:1.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Carolina, 20-17. Pick 'em
     Accuscore Pick: Carolina, 24-13. Carolina 65% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Carolina, 31-7. Carolina won 5 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Tampa Bay, 20-17. Tampa Bay better at 1-0 vs 0-1.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina, 20-17

     Matt Moore implodes for the second straight week and is benched late in the game as the upstart Tampa Bay Buccaneers stand alone atop the NFC South for the first time since late 2007. Tampa Bay is on a roll, and while they still face a stiff uphill battle the rest of the way, 2010 can already be viewed as a successful season for them. For Carolina, on the other hand, eh... not so much.


Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (Actual ~ Denver, 31-14)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Denver, 27-24. Denver wins a mile high shoot-out with its running game. Go figure.
     Scottie V's Pick: Denver, 23-13. A fired-up Mile High crowd is too much to overcome for the Seahawks.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Denver, 23-17. Denver by 3.5, Over/Under 40.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Denver, 21-16. Denver 59% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Seattle, 17-16. Seattle won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle, 20-17. Seattle better at 1-0 vs 0-1.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Denver, 20-17

     Oh, what a difference one week makes. Denver does to Seattle what Seattle did to San Francisco last week. Both teams now find themselves at 1-1 and in the middle of their own respective weak divisions. It's still too early to make a final decision on either of these teams, but, after this game, it appears Denver is closer to the playoffs than Seattle.


St. Louis Rams at Oakland Raiders (Actual ~ Oakland, 16-14)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Oakland, 13-9. What happens when a stoppable force hits a moveable object? Glad this one won't be on a TV anywhere close by so I have to find out.
     Scottie V's Pick: St. Louis, 17-9. Al Davis longs for the days when the Rams were still in Los Angeles...  To honor those days, Al Davis wears his "Members Only" jacket...  Pretty much just like any other Sunday.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Oakland, 21-17. Oakland by 3.5, Over/Under 38.
     Accuscore Pick: Oakland, 26-10. Oakland 71% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Oakland, 21-20. Oakland won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Oakland, 20-17. Both records at 0-1, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Oakland, 20-17

     Scottie V makes up for his homer brilliance in picking Pittsburgh to win at Tennessee by picking the St. Louis Rams, doormats of the NFL, to win on the road in Oakland. The Raiders win instead on the arm of their back-up quarterback after Campbell is benched at the half way mark. Quarterback controversary in Oakland? Who cares?

New England Patriots at New York Jets (Actual ~ New York, 28-14)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: New England, 21-16. Brady delivers the first strike for the Patriots and New York won't be able to catch up.
     Scottie V's Pick: New England, 35-20. In the Battle of the Jerko Coaches, Belichick shows that he is in a league of his own...  He is, indeed, the jerkiest jerk that ever did jerk.
     Vegas Lines Pick: New England, 21-17. New England by 3, Over/Under 37.5.
     Accuscore Pick: New England, 23-14. New England 62% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: New York, 26-14. New York won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: New England, 20-17. New England better at 1-0 vs 0-1.
     Home Team Wins Pick: New York, 20-17

     What if Sports gets the nearly perfect pick on this game as the loud-mouth Jets regain some of their swagger and knock off New England. Sanchez outduels Brady, much to the chagrin of Boston fans everywhere, and the Jets running game, led by the rejuvenated Tomlinson, grinds out the yards to keep the Patriots from having any chance to come back for a miracle win on the road. Now both 1-1, the Jets and Patriots find themselves playing catch-up with the surprising Miami Dolphins in the AFC East's three-team race.


Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers  (Actual ~ San Diego, 38-13)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: San Diego, 31-13. It won't be raining in San Diego. Jaguars can't win without adverse weather to help them.
     Scottie V's Pick: San Diego, 31-14. Phillip Rivers returns from his pout-fest in Kansas City to throw for 2 TD's.
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Diego, 28-20. San Diego by 7, Over/Under 45.5.
     Accuscore Pick: San Diego, 28-7. San Diego 79% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: San Diego, 28-14. San Diego won 5 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Jacksonville, 20-17. Jacksonville better at 1-0 vs 0-1.
     Home Team Wins Pick: San Diego, 20-17

     San Diego does everything to Jacksonville this week they should have done to Kansas City last week. I once again came close to a near perfect pick here, only expecting the Chargers to roll off one more touchdown in their victory.


Houston Texans at Washington Redskins (Actual ~ Houston, 30-27 (OT))
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Houston, 16-13. Texans do what the other Texas team couldn't - win in Washington.
     Scottie V's Pick: Houston, 28-17. Though Arian Foster cools off from his performance last week, Matt Schaub picks up the slack.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Houston, 24-20. Houston by 3, Over/Under 43.
     Accuscore Pick: Houston, 17-14. Houston 52% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Houston, 21-14. Houston won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Washington, 20-17. Both records at 1-0, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Washington, 20-17

     Blind picks once again get this game wrong while all other systems pick correctly - but only after the Texans rally from 17 down to propel themselves to an outstanding 2-0 record. Washington had this game, but loses it in the second half. Houston now shows all the playoff talk surrounding them this season is, for once, finally justified. Even in defeat, Mike Shanahan sends the message that his Redskins are not the Redskins of the past few seasons.

New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts (Actual ~ Indianapolis, 38-14)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Indianapolis, 35-31. Defense will be a secondary concern in Manning Bowl II. Big brother gets the much needed win at home.
     Scottie V's Pick: Indianapolis, 24-23. Peyton gets the upper-hand over his bro, efficiently leading the drive that leads to the game-winning field goal.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis, 28-21. Indianapolis by 5, Over/Under 48.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Indianapolis, 24-13. Indianapolis 67% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Indianapolis, 23-20. Indianapolis won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: New York, 20-17. New York better at 1-0 vs 0-1.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis, 20-17

     Big Brother Peyton leads his team to an easy (and much needed) victory over the Giants. A few more TD passes sure would have helped my fantasy team though...

Week 2 Prediction scoreboard through Sunday night...
     Home Team Wins Pick: 8-7 (season overall: 20-11)
     Scottie V's: 8-7 (season overall: 19-12)
     Vegas Picks: 8-7 (season overall: 19-12)
     Accuscore: 8-7 (season overall: 19-12)
     What If Sports: 8-7 (season overall: 16-15)
     Best Record Wins Pick: 7-8 (season overall: 19-12)
     Creative Misfortune: 7-8 (season overall: 15-16)
     


Check back tomorrow for the prediction roundup of the Monday Night Football game, the final prediction systems standings and the Week 2 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results. 

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